000 AGXX40 KNHC 130719 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EST SAT NOV 13 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... ASCAT PASSES FROM 02 UTC AND 04 UTC SHOW 20 KT OUT OF THE NE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OFF THE WEST COAST OF YUCATAN. OTHERWISE LIGHT TO MODERATE E TO SE FLOW IS EVIDENT ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE SE U.S. A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING THROUGH COASTAL TEXAS...AND WILL EMERGE OVER THE FAR NW GULF WATERS LATER THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY 20 KT NW FLOW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH LATE TODAY AS THE FRONT STALLS FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY LATE SUN...AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS OFF THE S TEXAS COAST. THE LOW PRES WILL TRACK NE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD LOUISIANA THROUGH MON...WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING OVER THE N CENTRAL AND NE GULF AHEAD OF THE LOW PRES. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE MON...WITH THE FRONT TRAILING FROM THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER DELTA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO. BY LATE TUE...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM TAMPA FL TO THE NE YUCATAN...FOLLOWED BY FRESH N FLOW OVER THE FAR SW GULF. THE FRONT DISSIPATES WED AND LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF MON THROUGH WED AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH STATES. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROP ATLC S OF 22N BETWEEN 65W AND 55W... A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS SAGGING S THROUGH HISPANIOLA AND JAMAICA...WITH A TRAILING SHEAR LINE THROUGH SAN ANDRES ISLAND. ASCAT ALONG WITH SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH NE FLOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN A BROAD SWATH BETWEEN ROUGHLY 75W AND 85W. FURTHER S...1009 MB LOW PRES IS NOTED OFF THE COLOMBIAN COAST. GLOBAL MODELS INCLUDING THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS FEATURE PERSISTING IN THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDWEEK...THEN MOVING N OFF THE NICARAGUAN COAST LATER IN THE WEEK. THE CURRENT THOUGHT IS THAT THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED NEAR THE COLOMBIAN COAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. FURTHER E...N SWELL OF 6 TO 10 FT WITH PERIODS TO 15 SECONDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES LATER TODAY. A FINGER OF N SWELL PUSHING THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE WILL DELIVER SEAS OF 6 FT TO THE ABC ISLANDS BY EARLY SUN. THIS SWELL IS ALREADY MOVING INTO THE TROP ATLC WATERS WATERS TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. N SWELL OF UP TO 8 FT WILL MAKE IT AS FAR S AS BARBADOS SUN BEFORE DECAYING BELOW 8 FT THROUGH SUN NIGHT. SW N ATLC S OF 31N AND W OF 65W... A 02 UTC ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT NW TO N WINDS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA ACCOMPANIED BY N SWELL OF 15 TO 20 FT N OF 25N. FURTHER SOUTH...ASCAT AND BUOYS SHOWED MODERATE N FLOW ALONG WITH N SWELL OF 10 TO 15 FT E OF THE BAHAMAS S OF 25N. THE N WINDS AND SWELL FOLLOW A COLD FRONT SWEEPING S OF THE AREA INTO THE GREATER ANTILLES EARLY THIS MORNING...ON THE SW QUADRANT OF A DEEP 1000 MB LOW PRES NEAR BERMUDA. THE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH SUN AS THE LOW FILLS AND SHIFTS NE AND HIGH PRES BUILDS IN ITS WAKE. THE N SWELL SIMILARLY SUBSIDES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH SEAS OF 8 TO 11 FT WILL LINGER INTO MON E OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS SWELL SUBSIDES BELOW 8 FT BY TUE...JUST AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW STARTS TO INCREASE OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING FROM THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE CAROLINAS. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE N FLORIDA COAST EARLY WED...AND WILL STALL FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO SOUTH FLORIDA BY EARLY THU. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER EC