000 AGXX40 KNHC 121910 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EST FRI NOV 12 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE NE U.S. THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH SE FLOW OVER THE FAR NW GULF NEAR THE TEXAS COAST...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY MODERATE NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE OVER GULF WATERS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF FRESH WINDS AND SEAS TO 8 FT ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF BY EARLY SAT...THEN IT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS E...AND ONLY REACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO NE MEXICO BY EARLY MON. A REINFORCING PUSH OF COLD AIR WILL ALLOW THE FRONT TO MOVE SE ACROSS THE GULF WATERS MON EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO MON EVENING...AND FROM BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE EVENING. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MON AND TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROP ATLC W OF 55W... SHIPS...BUOYS AND ASCAT DATA SHOW 20 TO 25 KT OUT OF THE N AND NE WINDS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARDS TO S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE TROP N ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN AND THE TROPICAL N ATLC BY SUN. BASED ON THE GLOBAL MODELS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. SOME GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC WIND CIRCULATION BUT KEEP WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. SOME CYCLONIC TURNING IS ALREADY NOTED ON THE CLOUD FIELD ON VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES JUST OFF THE COLOMBIA COAST. N SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH A STORM LOCATED NEAR 34N64W WILL ALSO AFFECT THE ATLC PASSAGES STARTING SAT WITH SEAS UP TO 8 FT EXCEPT ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WHERE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE 7 TO 10 FT RANGE. SW N ATLC... BUOYS AND AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOW A SURGE OF 20-25 KT NW TO N WINDS N OF 26N DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN A STORM NEAR 34N64W AND A RIDGE OVER THE SE CONUS. N SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM WILL BRING SEAS ABOVE 15 TO 25 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS SAT. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH SUN...WITH THE N SWELL DECAYING BELOW 8 FT BY TUE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY LATE TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR/EC