000 AGXX40 KNHC 120734 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EST FRI NOV 12 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE NE U.S. THROUGH THE SW GULF OF MEXICO. BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH SE FLOW OVER THE FAR NW GULF NEAR THE TEXAS COAST...AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRES MOVING INTO W TEXAS. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY MODERATE NE TO E WINDS DOMINATE OVER GULF WATERS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF BY EARLY SAT. THIS FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS E AS ITS SUPPORTING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS OUT...AND ONLY REACH FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO NE MEXICO BY EARLY MON. THE FRONT WILL GET A REINFORCING KICK BY LATE MON AS ANOTHER DEEP LAYER TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EXTENDING FROM THE BIG BEND AREA OF FLORIDA TO VERACRUZ MEXICO TUE. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE MON AS THE THE REINFORCING COOL AIR PUSHES OVER GULF WATERS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 25 KT OFF COAST OF VERACRUZ STATE IN THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROP ATLC W OF 55W... SHIP AND ASCAT DATA SHOW 20 TO 25 KT OUT OF THE N AND NE WINDS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARDS TO S OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THIS IS RESIDUAL BEHIND A STATIONARY FRONT PRESENT OVER THE LEEWARDS. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS WILL MERGE WITH THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE TROP N ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS THROUGH TONIGHT. FURTHER WEST...AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 0230Z ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH NE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE NW GULF...NW OF A LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS. LAND BASED OBSERVATIONS OVER THE AREA SHOW A SUBTLE DEWPOINT GRADIENT HINTING THAT THE TRAILING END OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL SHIFT E AND STALL AND WEAKEN FROM PUERTO RICO TO OFF THE NICARAGUA COAST BY LATE SAT. N TO NE WINDS WILL INCREASE N OF THE FRONT...MAINLY FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA. GLOBAL MODELS TO INCLUDE THE GFS...ECMWF...AND UKMET SHOW A WEAK LOW FORMING N OF PANAMA ON THE DISSIPATING END OF THE BOUNDARY ON SAT. MODELS SHOW THIS LOW REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH TUE...BUT DIFFER ON INTENSITY WITH THE GFS THE STRONGEST. THE OTHER ISSUE IS LONG PERIOD N SWELL WITH SEAS TO 9 FT AND PERIODS TO 15S MOVING THROUGH THE MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES STARTING SAT. SW N ATLC... AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0100Z SHOWS SURGE OF 20-25 KT N OF 26N BEHIND A REINFORCING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 25N65W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP TO THE SE OF THE AREA BY LATE SAT. N SWELL WILL BRING SEAS ABOVE OF 15 TO 25 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS SAT. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH SUN...WITH THE N SWELL DECAYING BELOW 8 FT BY TUE. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY LATE TUE. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN