000 AGXX40 KNHC 111847 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EST THU NOV 11 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... RIDGING WILL DOMINATE MOST OF THE GULF THROUGH SUN. A COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE TEXAS COAST SAT MORNING WILL WEAKEN AND STALL OVER THE NW GULF SUN MORNING. THE GFS MODEL RETROGRADES THE FRONT BACK ONSHORE BY NOON SUN AND THEN ALLOWS A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR TO BUILD BEHIND IT AND SEND THE FRONT OFFSHORE MON. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO MON NIGHT...AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS ZONE GMZ080 LATE MON INTO TUE...EXPECT INCREASING WINDS UP TO 25 KT AND BUILDING SEAS TO AROUND 7 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE UP TO 20 KT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF...INCLUDING THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TONIGHT AND FRI AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN RIDGE AND A DEEPENING LOW PRES OVER THE N-CENTRAL ATLC. MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE WILL DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE WEAK LOW PRES LOCATED OVER THE MONA PASSAGE 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED NE AND CURRENTLY IS OVER THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC NEAR 21N63W. THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATES THAT WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 15 KT ON THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. A STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE LOW NE TO 31N74W. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RECEIVE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH ON FRI. A FRONTAL TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW SW ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN TO NEAR THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA VENEZUELA. THIS TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI ALLOWING TRADE WINDS TO ESTABLISH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. NE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N DUE TO THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES OVER THE ATLC AND A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SE CONUS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS CONFIRMED THESE WIND SPEEDS. N TO NE SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW PRES ACROSS THE ATLC WILL ALSO AFFECT THE ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD RAISING SEAS UP TO 8 FT EXCEPT ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE WHERE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD IN THE 7 TO 10 FT RANGE. ACCORDING TO SOME OF THE FORECAST MODELS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST REFLECTS THE ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC WIND CIRCULATION BUT KEEP THE WINDS AT 20 KT WITH SEAS TO 8 FT. TROPICAL N ATLC... A STATIONARY FRONT LIES OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA WITH A 1010 MB LOW PRES NEAR 21N63W. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN AROUND 150 NM A OF LOW CENTER. THIS BOUNDARY WILL RECEIVE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AND DRIER AIR FROM THE NORTH ON FRI AND MOVE SLOWLY SE...THEN SHOULD STALL ONCE AGAIN BY SAT AND DISSIPATE ON SUN. NW SWELL FROM THE DEEP LAYER LOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO 12 FT IN THE NORTH PORTION OF THE ZONE BY SAT AND GRADUALLY DAMPEN AS IT MOVES S THROUGH THE ZONE SUN. SW N ATLC... A PAIR OF ASCAT PASSES FROM 1334 UTC AND 1515 UTC SHOW A SURGE OF 20-25 KT N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W AND 75W JUST BEHIND A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR OVER N WATERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW LOCATED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL ATLC. THE SWELL FROM THIS STORM...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE S APPROACHING THE FAR NE PORTION OF THE AREA LATE FRI INTO SAT...WILL BRING SEAS ABOVE 12 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS BY THE WEEKEND. A REINFORCING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE LOW ALONG 31N62W TO 24N68W BY SAT MORNING WITH INCREASING WINDS UP TO 30 KT AND SEAS IN THE 14 TO 24 FT RANGE IN N SWELL. BASED ON THE LATEST MARINE GUIDANCE...GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 1000 MB LOW PRES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF AREA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR