000 AGXX40 KNHC 100627 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 130 AM EST WED NOV 10 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1019 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 30N88W IS IN CONTROL OF THE WINDS IN THE GULF. THE HIGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SEND THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN GULF LATER TODAY. SE RETURN FLOW IN THE NW GULF HAS INCREASED TO 20 KT BY FRI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ACCORDING TO SEVERAL SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS REPORTED AT ELEVATED PLATFORMS. THE ECMWF HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN TOO WEAK WITH THESE WINDS...SO THE GFS IS RELIED ON FOR THE FORECAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD. PREVIOUS DIFFERENCES IN THE FORECAST FORE THE COLD FRONT AMONG THE MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO RESOLVE THEMSELVES...WITH THE GFS TRENDING WEAKER WITH THE COLD FRONT AND FASTER TO SEND IT BACK TO THE NORTH INTO TEXAS AFTER BRIEFLY PASSING OFFSHORE SAT WHILE THE ECMWF NOW ALLOWS THE FRONT TO MAKE IT OFFSHORE WHEN THE RUN THIS TIME YESTERDAY HAD NOT. WITH THE MODELS CONSIDERABLY MORE SIMILAR NOW...DO NOT HAVE A GOOD REASON TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE GFS FORECAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... A STATIONARY FRONT LIES ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN. THE 0128 UTC ASCAT PASS CONTINUES TO SHOW A LOW IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN NOW NEAR 16N68W EMBEDDED ON THE STATIONARY FRONT WITH LIGHT SE WINDS IN ITS SE SEMICIRCLE AND WINDS TO 15 KT IN ITS NW SEMICIRCLE. THE PRESENTATION OF THE SYSTEM IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE VORTICITY BECOMING STRUNG OUT TO THE NE ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT. WITH SE SHEAR EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SYSTEM BY TOMORROW...THE LOW IS TAKEN OUT OF THE FORECAST PROGS BY 24 HOURS. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND DISSIPATE BY FRI. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED NEAR AND E OF THIS FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W S OF 16N WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN THU AND CROSS 70W FRI...MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. TROPICAL N ATLC... THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A GALE LOW WELL NORTH OF THE AREA CUTS THROUGH THE ZONE FROM 22N59W TO EASTERN PUERTO RICO. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY RETROGRADE NW AS SOME OF THE MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE MID LEVEL BOUNDARY AND THEN MOVE BACK TO THE S BY FRI AS A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY THU WELL N OF THE ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH SOME OF THAT ENERGY STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CARIBBEAN. THIS FAST MOVING LOW WILL QUICKLY BECOME CAUGHT IN THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER LOW OFF THE MID ATLC U.S. COAST. NW SWELL FROM THAT DEEP LAYER LOW WILL BUILD SEAS TO 12 FT IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE ZONE BY SAT. THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SUN. ELSEWHERE...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 51W S OF 16N WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ZONE TODAY. SW N ATLC... THE 0130 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED 25 KT NW WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVER NE WATERS AND 20 KT NE WINDS N OF THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT CROSSES PUERTO RICO OVER WATERS N OF HISPANIOLA AND IN THE APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...WITH REPORTS FROM SHIP ZCDP8 AND ZCBU5 SUGGESTING WINDS ARE CLOSER TO 25 KT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE PASSAGE. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. ON THU.... A NEW SURGE OF NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW OFF THE MID ATLC U.S. COAST WILL MOVE INTO NE WATERS AND THE SWELL FROM THIS STORM WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING SEAS ABOVE 12 FT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS BY THE WEEKEND. A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW TO THE N OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER