000 AGXX40 KNHC 090651 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 155 AM EST TUE NOV 9 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1021 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 29N89W IS IN CONTROL OF THE WINDS IN THE GULF. THE HIGH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AND SEND THE RIDGE AXIS INTO THE EASTERN GULF BY WED. SE RETURN FLOW IN THE NW GULF IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 20 KT BY FRI AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS IS A BLEND OF THE GFS WHICH DOES SO FASTER AND THE WEAKER ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH NO LONGER BRINGS WINDS TO 20 KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE A FASTER/STRONGER SOLUTION THAN THE ECMWF AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS HERE. IT BRINGS THE FRONT OFF THE TX COAST SAT MORNING WHILE THE ECMWF HANGS IS UP AT THE COAST BEFORE SENDING IT BACK TO THE NW. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND. STICKING CLOSER TO CONTINUITY FOR NOW WHICH IS ESSENTIALLY THE GFS SOLUTION...BUT WILL SLOW THE FRONT DOWN A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND AS A NOD TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE GALE LOW...FORMALLY TOMAS...WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO A 1007 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM NEAR 14N70W. THIS WEAK FRONT SEPARATES NORTHERLY WINDS TO ITS W FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS ON ITS E SIDE. THE FRONT WILL REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND DISSIPATE TO A SHEAR LINE BY FRI. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED NEAR AND E OF THIS FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE 0148 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 20 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRES SYSTEM. SHIP ZCDG8 ALSO HAD A 20 KT REPORT 05Z AND A WIND SHIFT FROM SE AT 04Z. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN CONDITIONS COINCIDED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW. THE MODELS KEEP THE LOW RELATIVELY STATIONARY THROUGH THU AND THEN THE 00Z ECMWF DISSIPATES THE LOW WHILE THE 00Z GFS ALLOWS WHAT REMAINS OF THE TROUGHING TO SHIFT W OVER THE CARIBBEAN. SE SHEAR BUILDS OVER THE LOW BY THU AND THE MID LEVEL ENERGY IS CARRIED NORTHEASTWARD PIECEMEAL BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ALONG THE DISSIPATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FORECAST RELIES MORE HEAVILY ON THE ECMWF. TROPICAL N ATLC... THE FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE GALE LOW...FORMALLY TOMAS...WELL NORTH OF THE AREA CUTS THROUGH THE REGION FROM 22N60W TO THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE E ACROSS FAR N WATERS THROUGH WED BEFORE DISSIPATING ALONG 20N BY FRI TO A SHEAR AXIS. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS A CONSIDERABLY BETTER HANDLE ON THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THAN THE GFS WHICH IS TOO WEAK WITH THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE LOW COMPARED TO A 0150 UTC ASCAT PASS AND NOT DEEP ENOUGH WITH THE SURFACE PRES. THE ECMWF WAS FAVORED THROUGH TONIGHT IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THEN THE HPC RECOMMENDED SOLUTION WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW OFF THE NE U.S. COAST...A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF...WAS USED AS IT WILL BE THIS DEEP LAYER LOW THAT WILL STEER THE GALE LOW NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS FORECAST DROPS WINDS BELOW 20 KT IN THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 47W S OF 17N WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ZONE WED. A NEW SURGE OF NNW SWELL WILL BRING SEAS TO 12 FT OVER NW WATERS BY SAT. SW N ATLC... THE 0150 UTC ASCAT PASS CONTINUED TO SHOW A SOLIDS AREA OF 40 KT WINDS JUST E OF THE AREA ON THE SW SIDE OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT WAS ONCE TROPICAL CYCLONE TOMAS. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE SW N ATLC ZONE TODAY AND WINDS WITHIN THE ZONE...CURRENTLY AS HIGH AS 25 KT IN FORECAST WATERS JUST TO ITS W ACCORDING TO THAT ASCAT PASS...WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT TODAY. A NEW SURGE OF NW FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW OFF THE NE U.S. COAST WILL MOVE INTO NE WATERS LATER TODAY AND THE SWELL FROM THIS STORM WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING SEAS ABOVE 12 FT IN N WATERS WED AND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS BY THE WEEKEND. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF IS PREFERRED WITH THE DEEP LAYER LOW TO THE N OF THE FORECAST AREA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER