000 AGXX40 KNHC 080644 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 145 AM EST MON NOV 8 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS TO 20 KT REMAIN OVER THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN GULF WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF AND THE COLD FRONT AND REMNANT OF TOMAS IN THE SW N ATLC IS GREATEST. THESE WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT BY TUE AS THE PATTERN SHIFTS TO THE E AND RIDGING MOVES OVER THE AREA. WINDS IN THE NW GULF HAVE SHIFTED SE OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS RETURN FLOW REACHING 20 KT IS ON FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS CURRENTLY FASTER WITH THIS FRONT THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS THE WINDS UP TO 20 KT BY THU NIGHT. WITH THE MODELS AGREEING ON BRINGING ENERGY OVER THE PACIFIC RIDGE AND INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH MID WEEK...THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS MORE LIKELY AND IT IS PREFERRED BY HPC. WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTION OF 20 KT WINDS UNTIL FRI AS A RESULT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA HAS BECOME FRONTAL AND IS DRAGGING A FRONT TO ITS S INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THIS WEAK FRONT SEPARATES NORTHERLY WINDS TO ITS W FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS ON ITS E SIDE. THE STRONGEST NORTHERLY WINDS LIE W OF 77W ACCORDING TO THE 0210 UTC ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY TUE. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY NUDGE E OVER THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN AS THE REMNANT OF TOMAS MOVES EASTWARD AND CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED NEAR AND E OF THIS FRONT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FARTHER S...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A WEAK AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES ON THE FRONT BY WED WHICH KEEPS THIS END OF THE FRONT ANCHORED NEAR 70W. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS WEAK LOW PRES SYSTEM DEVELOPING. THE FORECAST BROAD BRUSHES THIS IDEA...LEAVING IT AN AREA OF BROAD LOW PRES. TROPICAL N ATLC AND HIGH SEAS AREA... THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON CARRYING THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY N OF THIS ZONE SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE THE MID LEVEL CENTER IS DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE INTENSIFYING DEEP LAYER LOW OFF THE NE U.S. COAST. THE DECOUPLING OF THIS SYSTEM WILL SLACKEN THE SURFACE WINDS WELL NE OF THIS ZONE OVER THE NE PORTION OF THE HIGH SEAS AREA AND SWELL FROM THIS AREA WILL DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT BY WED. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC...THE FRONT S OF THE REMNANT OF TOMAS IS SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE ZONE. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS SOUTH OF THE LAST OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TOMAS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ISSUED 07/18Z AND THIS MORE SOUTHERLY CONSENSUS ALREADY SEEMS TO BE PANNING OUT BASED ON THE MOTION OF THE EXPOSED CENTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT THAT CAUSE IS TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO THE ECMWF WAS RELIED ON MORE FOR THE FORECAST. IT IS WEAKER WITH THE WINDS NEAR THE FRONT AND THE RESULTING WAVES THROUGH WED. SW N ATLC... THE 0212 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SOLID AREA OF WINDS TO 50 KT IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE REMNANT LOW OF TOMAS. SINCE THEN...TOMAS HAS SHOWN ONLY A SLIGHT INDICATION OF WEAKENING IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...BECOMING MORE OBLONG AS IT MOVES E. WINDS AT BUOY 41047 HAVE STAYED AROUND 30 KT THIS EVENING TO THE CURRENT TIME. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE ASCAT PASS. SHIP OBS IN THE VICINITY DO NOT INDICATE THAT ANY SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING HAS OCCURRED SINCE THE ASCAT PASS. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP THE STORM WARNING UP FOR AT LEAST ONE MORE CYCLE UNLESS SOME CONVINCING PIECE OF DATA COMES IN BETWEEN NOW AND 0930 UTC. AS STATED ABOVE...THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE IS SOUTH OF THE LAST OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TOMAS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE ISSUED 07/18Z AND THIS MORE SOUTHERLY CONSENSUS ALREADY SEEMS TO BE PANNING OUT BASED ON THE MOTION OF THE EXPOSED CENTER ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE 00Z GFS APPEARS TO HAVE SOME FEEDBACK ISSUES OVERNIGHT MON NIGHT THAT CAUSE IS TO BE MORE SOUTHERLY AND SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS...SO THE ECMWF WAS RELIED ON MORE FOR THE FORECAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE AS A GALE WELL E OF THE AREA UNTIL TUE NIGHT. N WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH FRI AS THE DEEP LAYER LOW AMPLIFIES OFF THE NE U.S. COAST. WARNINGS... ATLC... .STORM WARNING FROM 24N TO 29N E OF 71W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER