000 AGXX40 KNHC 071824 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 120 PM EST SUN NOV 7 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... NE FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KT CONTINUES AREA S OF 25N E OF 86W WITH ASSOCIATED SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FT. EXPECT AREA OF 15 TO 20 KT TO SHRINK TO JUST S OF 25N E OF 83W AROUND SUNRISE MON...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO NE 10 TO 15 KT MON NIGHT. BY THEN SLY FLOW WILL HAVE SET UP OVER W WATERS AT 10 TO 15 KT. AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH CENTER SHIFTS ESE ACROSS N CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS WED ASSOCIATED WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER NE WATERS WHILE E TO SE RETURN FLOW AT 10 TO 15 KT CONTINUES ELSEWHERE THROUGH EARLY THU. GUIDANCE SUGGESTING GRADIENT TIGHTENS THEREAFTER SUPPORTING E TO SE 15 TO 20 KT MOST WATERS ON FRI. TROPICAL N ATLC AND CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM MONA PASSAGE TO N COLOMBIA AND EFFECTIVELY SEPARATES N FLOW AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER THE W PART FROM LIGHTER SLY FLOW E OF ABOUT 69W. TOMAS TO THE N WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN BUT DRAG COLD AIR S OVER ITS W SEMICIRCLE. THIS COLDER AIR WILL MERGE WITH THE TROUGH MODIFYING IT TO A COLD FRONT AND PUSHING IT E ACROSS VIRGIN ISLANDS AND TROPICAL WATERS TO THE NE OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF TROUGH WILL BECOME ORIENTATED NE-SE FROM VIRGIN ISLANDS TO NW COLOMBIA THROUGH THE WEEK. THIS WILL SET UP GENERATION SCENARIO FOR ANOTHER TROPICAL SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MID TO LATTER WEEK. NOT BUYING THIS FORMATION COMPLETELY YET... BUT EXPECT BROAD TROUGH/WIND SHIFT LINE TO DISSECT CARIBBEAN AND MEANDER THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE N TO NE FLOW OVER AREA W OF ABOUT 68W WITH SE TO SW FLOW ELSEWHERE IN CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. A 15 TO 20 KT SW TO NW WIND SHIFT EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN SEGMENT OF FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES E ACROSS WATERS N OF 17N. THIS NORTHERN FRONTAL SEGMENT WILL STALL FROM 22N55W TO 18N63W WED...THEN DRIFT W THU AND FRI. N SWELLS WILL FOLLOW FRONT DRIVING SEAS TO 11 FT INTO NE ATLC PASSAGES THROUGH TUE...SUBSIDING 5 TO 7 FT BY NEXT WEEKEND. SW N ATLC... TS TOMAS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO EXTRA TROPICAL LOW TONIGHT INTO MON AND BEGIN TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE MON NIGHT AND TUE. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO ITS N AND A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS TO ITS S TO NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE. COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE S OVER THE W SEMICIRCLE SO I WILL FORECAST THE STATIONARY FRONT AND SOUTHERN TROUGH TO BECOME A COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND MON...AND WILL MOVE THIS FRONT E OF 55W EARLY TUE. STRONG N WINDS ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE N SWELLS WILL BUILD SEAS 8 FT OR GREATER ALL WATERS TONIGHT EXCEPT THE PROTECTED AREA W OF CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS...WHERE EVEN 6 FT SEAS MAY CREEP THOUGH EXPOSED PASSAGES. RIDGE WILL BUILD E ALONG 27N MON NIGHT AND TUE. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E ACROSS THE NE WATERS N OF THE RIDGE WED WITH ANOTHER SET OF REINFORCING N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS TO AT LEAST 20 FT SPREADING S INTO AREA THROUGH END OF THE WEEK. WARNINGS... ATLC... .AMZ080...TS WRNG 23N-29N E OF 73W TRANSITION TO STORM WRNG TONIGHT FROM 24N-29N E OF 71W. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON