000 AGXX40 KNHC 060642 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 AM EDT SAT NOV 6 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A JASON1 PASS FROM 2115Z SHOWED WAVES TO 14 FT IN THE SW GULF. THE PASS MATCHED WELL WITH BUOY 42055 NEAR 22N94W WHICH SHOWED 9 FT SEAS AT THAT TIME. WINDS AND SEAS HAVE COME DOWN SINCE THE AFTERNOON IN THE WESTERN GULF. THE AFOREMENTIONED BUOY HAS SINCE SUBSIDED TO 7 FT...BUT THE 0254 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED WINDS TO 25 KT AND IT ONLY CLIPPED THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TODAY TO REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 20 KT IN THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE FUNNELING WINDS TYPICALLY SET UP BEHIND COLD FRONT. WHILE WINDS ARE SUBSIDING IN MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WESTERN GULF...THEY CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE 20 KT IN THE EASTERN GULF WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE COLD FRONT AND HURRICANE TOMAS IN THE SW N ATLC IS GREATEST. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS HOLDS ONTO A STRONGER AND MORE SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH TOMAS THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH MAY BE CAUSING IT TO BE TOO STRONG WITH WINDS IN THE EASTERN GULF. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD WEAKER WINDS THERE. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW 20 KT SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OFF THE COAST OF S TX AND NE MEXICO BY TUE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PLAINS. THE GFS IS AN OUTLIER AMONG THE MODELS WITH ITS WEAKER SOLUTION HERE...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD THE ECMWF. CARIBBEAN SEA... HURRICANE TOMAS HAS MOVED THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN. A TROUGH TRAILS THE SYSTEM...SEPARATING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND ITS SECONDARY SURGE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM SOUTHERLY INFLOW INTO TOMAS. RAINBANDS CURRENTLY LIE OVER NE CARIBBEAN AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE EAST SIDE OF TOMAS AS IT SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TO THE N OF THE AREA. ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION WILL ALSO SEND THE LINGERING TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THE MODELS GUIDANCE HINTS AS THE POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRES SYSTEM ON THIS TROUGH. THE GFS SENDS ITS AREA OF LOW PRES WESTWARD THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN TUE/WED AND THIS SOLUTION HAS THE SUPPORT OF THE UKMET WHILE THE ECMWF IS THE FARTHER E. CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAN A LOW PRES SYSTEM WILL EVEN DEVELOP HERE...BUT THE GFS APPEARS TO HAVE SOME SUPPORT. DO NOT SEE A REASON TO GO AWAY FROM ITS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. TROPICAL N ATLC... THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON ALLOWING THE TROUGH CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR 45W TO CONTINUE TO DIG S AND PINCH OFF A LOW ALOFT THAT WILL RETROGRADE N OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE AND PERMIT MUCH OF ITS ENERGY TO BECOME ABSORBED IN THE LEADING EDGE OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALONG THE U.S. EASTERN SEABOARD. THE MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF ENERGY THAT GETS PICKED UP...WITH THE GFS ALLOWING MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THIS LOW AND TOMAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT SUGGEST AS MUCH INTERACTION AS IT IS WEAKER THAN THE GFS AT THAT TIME AND FARTHER N. SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TOWARD THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND AWAY FROM THE GFS WHICH ALLOWS THE CENTER OF TOMAS TO COME WITHIN 60 NM OF THE NE CORNER OF THE ZONE LATE IN THE PERIOD. SW N ATLC... THE NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST AT 0300 UTC MOVES TOMAS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NORTHEASTWARD AS A HURRICANE UNTIL SAT NIGHT WHEN IT DIMINISHES TO A TROPICAL STORM. TOMAS WILL CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH SUN MORNING AND THEN TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY TRACK...DIMINISHING TO A DEPRESSION MON EVENING AN TO A REMNANT LOW NEAR 26.0N 63.0W TUE EVENING. THIS IS CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE AND WILL REQUIRE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WARNINGS... ATLC... .HURRICANE WARNING S OF 26N FROM 69W TO 74W...AMZ080. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER