000 AGXX40 KNHC 040810 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT THU NOV 4 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PROBABILITY OF GALES W OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW GULF AND LATER THIS MORNING IN THE SW GULF. FUNNELING EFFECTS EXPECTED TO GALE TO NEAR GALE WINDS ALONG COAST OF MEXICO THROUGH FRI. HIGH PRES PASSING N OF THE AREA TAKES CONTROL OF THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE W GULF AND SHIFTING SE IN THE NW GULF WHILE THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND TOMAS TO THE SE OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... TOMAS SHOWING BETTER CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ON IR SATELLITE BUT NOT INTENSIFYING QUICKLY. TOMAS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING N AND INTENSIFY AS IT BRUSHES HAITI AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE SYSTEM WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NE AND WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR HAITI. INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES ALONG 61W S OF 16N OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAS LITTLE CONVECTION AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG 47W S OF 22N IS BARELY MOVING AND IS ENCOUNTERING HOSTILE UPPER WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES. STRONGER PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING N CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE HIGH AND TROUGHING TO THE W ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TOMAS WILL INCREASE WINDS AND SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 15N THROUGH SAT. SW N ATLC... GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW A HIGH CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS FRI IN FAR N WATERS AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. TYPICALLY GFS MODEL PERFORMANCE TENDS TO OVERPLAY SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF FRONTS IN THIS AREA...SO WILL EXERCISE RESTRAINT REGARDING GALES. EXPECT GALE FORCE WINDS TO BE BRIEF AND HIGHLY LOCALIZED. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING E OF 77W...AMZ082. .TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 14N W OF 72W...AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE WARNING W OF 92W...GMZ080. .GALE WARNING W OF 93W...GMZ082. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL