000 AGXX40 KNHC 031841 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT WED NOV 3 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLES NOW GIVE A NEAR 100 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE NW GULF THU MORNING WITH THE PROBABILITY DIMINISHING TO 20 PERCENT IN THE NW GULF ZONE THU EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES OUT OF THE AREA. THE SREFS HAVE ALSO INCREASED THE FORECAST PROBABILITY OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NW GULF. WHILE THE 03Z SREFS ARE NOT AS ADAMANT AS YESTERDAY ABOUT GALE CONDITIONS IN THE FAR SW GULF WHERE FUNNELING WINDS ARE TYPICALLY ENHANCED NEAR THE COAST OF THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...THEY STILL SHOW AS HIGH AS A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF A GALE THROUGH MIDDAY FRI. HIGH PRES PASSING N OF THE AREA TAKES CONTROL OF THE GULF OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH WINDS DIMINISHING IN THE WESTERN GULF AND SHIFTING SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE NW GULF WHILE THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS STRONG OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH WINDS AROUND 20 KT BETWEEN THE SURFACE HIGH AND TOMAS TO THE SE OF THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TOMAS REMAINS HIGH. THEREFORE...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WANES CONSIDERABLY BY THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TOMAS HAS BECOME CONSIDERABLY LESS ORGANIZED AND IT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR TOMAS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY THU MORNING AS IT BEGINS A NORTHEASTERLY TRACK TOWARD WESTERN HAITI. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AS IT BRUSHES HAITI AND THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF TOMAS IS VERY HIGH. THE NORTHWARD TURN CONTINUES TO BE DELAYED BY THE MODELS AND IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO TREND FARTHER LEFT TOWARD THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND AWAY FROM HAITI. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK OF THE CENTER OF TOMAS...IF THE SYSTEM IS ALLOWED TO BE PICKED UP BY THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NE...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT IN HAITI. INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES LIES ALONG 58W S OF 15N AT 12Z AND IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. IT HAS PASSED W OF THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL WINDS WHICH HAD DIMINISHED CONVECTION NEAR THE TROUGH YESTERDAY. TODAY...THE TROUGH HAS AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT S OF 11N. WINDS TO 20 KT ACCOMPANIED THE TROUGH ACCORDING TO BUOY 41101 AT 12Z AND SEAS TO 8 FT WERE OBSERVED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH BY AN 0835Z ALTIMETER PASS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH FINALLY MOVES W OF THE AREA. ANOTHER TROUGH...THIS ONE ALONG 45W S OF 18N...WILL ENCOUNTER THE HOSTILE UPPER WINDS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE BUILDING N CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE HIGH AND TROUGHING TO THE W ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT AND TOMAS WILL BRING WINDS ABOVE 20 KT AND SEAS TO 8 FT IN MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 15N THU THROUGH AT LEAST SAT. THE SLOWER OFFICIAL FORECAST OF TOMAS COMPARED TO THE 12Z GFS SUGGEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG HERE INTO THE WEEKEND RATHER THAN DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT LIKE THE GFS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THE FORECAST FOR TOMAS THIS FAR INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. SW N ATLC... THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLES SHOWED AS HIGH AS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS FRI IN FAR N WATERS AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FL COAST THU AFTERNOON. THEREFORE...ADDED A MENTION OF GALES INTO THE OFFSHORE FORECAST. MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE REQUIRED TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH WAS USED AS A BASE FOR THE FORECAST TO ACCOMMODATE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR TOMAS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CONSIDERABLY SLOWER AND STRONGER THAN THE GFS. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING E OF 77W...AMZ082. .TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 14N E OF 77W...AMZ084. .TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 15N W OF 72W...AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER