000 AGXX40 KNHC 030749 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT WED NOV 3 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... DEVELOPING LOW PRES ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST WITH STRONG UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHWARD AS REINFORCEMENT IS DRIVING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SSW FROM A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 30N92W TO 20N97W ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH SLOW MOVING SOLUTION AS DEPICTED BY GFS. A DEEPER AND SLOW-MOVING LOW SHOULD ALLOW GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP THU OVER THE NW GULF AS COLD AIR PUSHES OFFSHORE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW. SREF ENSEMBLES AGREE WITH GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NW GULF BY 12Z THU AND STRONGLY INDICATE GALES IN THE SW GULF WHERE FUNNELING WINDS ARE TYPICALLY ENHANCED NEAR THE COAST OF THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. CARIBBEAN SEA... MODEL GUIDANCE FOR THE TRACK FORECAST OF TOMAS HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IT WILL MOVE SLOWLY THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS THEN TURN SHARPLY TO THE NORTH ACROSS HISPANIOLA AS THE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. APPROACHES. HOWEVER THERE IS NOT THE SAME DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST. TOMAS CONTINUES A STRUGGLE TO REGAIN ITS INTENSITY...AND IS EITHER A 30 KT TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR A WEAK 35 KT TROPICAL STORM AT THIS POINT. BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS IN THE OFFING WHICH WILL MAKE TOMAS A HURRICANE WITHIN 48 HOURS. BUT TIME IS RUNNING OUT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNFAVORABLE VERY SOON DUE TO INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR AND LAND EFFECTS. SO WHILE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...AN INCREASINGLY LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT TOMAS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT REGAIN HURRICANE INTENSITY. REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY THIS WILL LIKELY BE A RAINFALL EVENT FOR HAITI. TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES ALONG 55W S OF 15N IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS E OF THE WINDWARDS. ANOTHER TROUGH ALONG 44W BETWEEN 07N-18N HAS ISOLATED CONVECTION E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. NEITHER FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. LONG TERM...INCREASINGLY HOSTILE UPPER WINDS WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGHS AS THE UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES. STRONG SFC HIGH PRES BEHIND A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THU/FRI. SW N ATLC... FRESH E WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS TOMAS MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THU AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOW STRONGER LIKE THE ECMWF WITH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER MUCH OF THE ZONE E OF THE FRONT BY FRI MORNING. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 17N E OF 79W...AMZ082. .TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 13N E OF 79W...AMZ084. .TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 13N TO 17N W OF 73W... AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL