000 AGXX40 KNHC 021916 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 925 AM EDT TUE NOV 2 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THE FORECAST GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO VERY GOOD AGREEMENT COMPARED TO THIS TIME YESTERDAY WITH THE PHASING OF THE LOW CURRENTLY CUTTING OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BACK INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM OVER THE EASTERN GULF ON FRI. THE MODELS TODAY HAVE TRENDED TOWARD THE MORE CONSISTENTLY SLOW GFS SOLUTION. AT THE SURFACE...THERE REMAIN SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...BUT OVERALL THERE IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT. THE 06Z GFS HAS TRENDED TOWARD A DEEPER SOLUTION WHICH IS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS. FAVORING A DEEPER AND SLOWER SOLUTION THAN YESTERDAY WILL NOW ALLOW FOR GALE FORCE WINDS TO DEVELOP THU OVER THE NW GULF AS THE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW ALREADY IN PLACE IN THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. THE 06Z GFS ENSEMBLES SHOW UP TO AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF WINDS AT 34 KTS OR ABOVE AT 12Z THU...BUT QUICKLY DIMINISHES TO LESS THAN 35 PERCENT BY 18Z AND 20 PERCENT BY 00Z. THE SREF ENSEMBLES ALSO AGREE ON DEVELOPING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NW GULF BY 12Z...BUT ARE EVEN MORE ADAMANT ABOUT THE GALE IN THE SW GULF WHERE FUNNELING WINDS ARE TYPICALLY ENHANCED NEAR THE COAST OF THE WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE SREFS OVER A 75 PERCENT CHANCE OF A GALE THERE INTO FRI MORNING. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TOMAS HAS TAKEN ON A MORE ORGANIZED BANDING PATTERN THIS MORNING. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO 75W AS A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE IT BEGINS A SHARP NORTH TURN AND STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE NEAR 15.0N 75.8W EARLY THU MORNING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THEN CARRIES TOMAS NE TOWARD HAITI AS A HURRICANE...PASSING NEAR PORT-AU-PRINCE EARLY SAT MORNING AND EMERGING OVER THE ATLC LATE SAT BEFORE PASSING E OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS SUN. THERE CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF TOMAS AROUND THE TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH AND AFTER THE TURN. THE CMC MODEL AND...TO A LESS EXTENT...THE ECMWF...ARE FASTER CARRYING THE SYSTEM NE THROUGH HAITI WHILE THE UKMET IS THE DEEPEST SOLUTION AND IS SLOWER TO MAKE THE NORTHWARD TURN THAN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE CLOSEST TO THE NHC FORECAST. IF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST PANS OUT...THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR HAITI IN ADDITION TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER...THE CURRENT FORECAST CARRIES THE SYSTEM THROUGH HAITI IN LESS THAN 24 HOURS...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF TIME THAT RAIN COULD FALL. THE GFS NOW SUGGESTS BETWEEN 5-7 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING ABOUT AN INCH LESS ON BOTH ENDS OF THE RANGE. INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES HAS PASSED 55W S OF 16N THIS MORNING IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION THAN WAS NEAR THE TROUGH YESTERDAY HAS BEEN BROKEN APART BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS THAT HAVE BROUGHT INCREASING SHEAR OVER THIS SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER JET. WINDS TO 20 KT ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH WITH SEAS TO 8 FT REPORTED BOTH BY BUOY 41040 AND AN ALTIMETER PASS THIS MORNING. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM 12N TO 17N AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE TODAY. ANOTHER TROUGH...THIS ONE ALONG 39W S OF 13N...WILL ALSO ENCOUNTER HOSTILE UPPER WINDS WHICH WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION AS THE UPPER PATTERN AMPLIFIES. BY FRI...A NORTHERLY JET WITH WINDS TO 80-100 KT WILL SET UP ALONG THE EASTERN BOUNDARY OF THE ZONE. STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDING AT THE SURFACE BEHIND A DEEP LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WILL INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA THU/FRI...BUT THE NE PROGRESS OF TOMAS SHOULD SLACKEN THE GRADIENT BY THE WEEKEND AND BRING WINDS BACK BELOW 20 KT EXCEPT IN THE EASTERN FRINGE OF TOMAS WHICH SHOULD BE APPROACHING THE NW CORNER OF THE ZONE LATE SAT. SW N ATLC... FRESH E WINDS LIE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AS TOMAS MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...WITH THE 0236 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWING WINDS TO 25 KT IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A WEAK COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED INTO FAR NE WATERS WITH LITTLE FANFARE THIS MORNING. THE WINDS WERE OVERDONE BY THE MODELS YESTERDAY WITH THIS FEATURE. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A COASTAL BOUNDARY OVER NE FLORIDA TODAY AND THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST THU AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOW STRONGER LIKE THE ECMWF WITH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER MUCH OF THE ZONE E OF THE FRONT BY FRI MORNING. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING WED E OF 77W...AMZ082. .TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 13N E OF 77W WED...AMZ084. .TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 12N W OF 71W... AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER