000 AGXX40 KNHC 020801 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 AM EDT TUE NOV 2 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AMONG THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A CUT OFF LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY OVERNIGHT TUE NIGHT. THE 06Z GFS AND 12Z UKMET ARE CONSIDERABLY SLOWER THAN THE 00Z ECMWF CARRYING THE LOW EASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THE 12Z GFS HAS TRENDED FASTER WITH THE LOW...BUT STILL NOT AS FAST AS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. AT THE SURFACE...THE ECMWF IS DEEPER THAN THE THE OTHER GLOBAL GUIDANCE. DESPITE THESE DIFFERENCE...THE 12Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF BOTH FIRST BRING WINDS TO GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF FAR NE MEXICO AROUND 06Z THU MORNING. HOWEVER...THE GFS CONTINUES TO CARRY A GALE IN THE SW GULF THROUGH 18Z FRI WHILE THE FASTER ECMWF IS FASTER TO SPREAD THE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE GULF AND BRING THE WINDS BELOW GALE FORCE BY 06Z FRI. HPC MEDR PROGS FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION OVER THE GULF. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST IS BASED ON THE ECMWF. CARIBBEAN SEA... TOMAS HAS SHOWN INCREASED CONVECTION AND BETTER ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT...AN INDICATION THAT THE SHEAR HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT NEAR THE SYSTEM. TOMAS IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TOWARD 76W AS A TROPICAL STORM...CURVING NORTH AND NE WED THROUGH THU BEFORE STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE THU NIGHT AS IT MOVES TOWARD HAITI. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST AROUND THE TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH. IF THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CORRECT THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL EVENT FOR HAITI IN ADDITION TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS. THE GFS...WHICH IS SLOWER THAN THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST... SUGGESTS BETWEEN 4-9 INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER A 48 HOUR PERIOD. SINCE THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CARRIES THE SYSTEM NE MORE QUICKLY THESE AMOUNTS MAY BE OVERDONE...BUT INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF TOMAS AND THE OFFICIAL FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. TROPICAL N ATLC... A TROUGH IN THE EASTERLIES ALONG 52W S OF 13N IS MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE AND IS CARRYING A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WESTWARD WITH IT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING INCREASING SHEAR OVER THIS SYSTEM AS THE UPPER JET DIPS SOUTHWARD E OF 60W. THIS INCREASED SHEAR WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION. CURRENTLY...WINDS TO 20 KT ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH AND THEY ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM 12N TO 17N AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC ZONE THROUGH WED. SW N ATLC... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY TRANQUIL EXCEPT FOR FRESH E WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA EXPECTED THROUGH TUE AS TOMAS MOVES THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH WILL BREAK DOWN TUE AS A COLD FRONT DIPS INTO FAR N WATERS AND INCREASES WINDS TO 20 KT. BY WED...THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SURFACE WAVE ALONG THE COASTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE NE FL COAST AND MOVE NE AWAY FROM THE AREA WED NIGHT OR THU MORNING. THE CURRENT FORECAST REASONING FAVORS THE 00Z ECMWF THROUGH THU AND THEN BLENDS THE 00Z ECMWF AND 00Z GFS ENS MEAN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS EXPLAINED IN THE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION. THE STRONGER ECMWF INCREASES WINDS AT OR ABOVE 20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA E OF THE FRONT THU AND FRI. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 12N W OF 68W... AMZ086. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER MUNDELL