000 AGXX40 KNHC 280730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 PM EDT THU OCT 28 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH THE NORTHERN GULF TO THE TEXAS COAST...SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND COASTAL TEXAS. A REINFORCING FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WILL PLUNGE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS LATER TODAY. STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE GULF...REACHING FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO NE MEXICO NEAR 23N96W BY THIS EVENING...AND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO 22N94W TO 18N94W BY FRI MORNING. FUNNELING WINDS WILL REACH GALE FORCE OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ STATE IN THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO FRI... WITH SEAS TO 14 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH SAT AS THE FRONT SHIFTS FURTHER S AND DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER NORTHERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0238Z ALONG WITH SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS N OF THE LEEWARDS...THEN THROUGH THE WINDWARD...MONA AND ANEGADA PASSAGES. BUOYS NE OF THE LEEWARDS ALONG WITH A SHIP N OF PUERTO RICO INDICATED SEAS 8 TO 10 FT WITH NE SWELL...AND IT IS LIKELY SOME OF THIS IS REFRACTING INTO THE ATLC PASSAGES. FURTHER WEST...THE SAME 0238Z ASCAT PASS WAS INDICATING 20 KT E TO SE WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...AND FRESH FLOW OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TODAY AS RIDGING TO THE NORTH GIVES WAY TO A TROUGH MIGRATING NW TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARDS. FURTHER EAST...A TROPICAL WAVE NOW ALONG 42W S OF 13N IS MOVING E AT 15 TO 20 KT...WITH A DEVELOPING 1008 MB SURFACE LOW ALONG THE WAVE AT 07N. THE WAVE/LOW COMBO IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATE FRI...REACHING 65W BY LATE SAT. THIS FEATURE WILL MIGRATE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN. SW N ATLC... MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS DOMINATE THE SW N ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC NEAR 37N55W. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N53W TO 20N57W. DESPITE SOME ONGOING SHEAR...THERE APPEARS TO BE A DECENT CHANCE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP FURTHER...PERHAPS INTO A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE IS INDICATED ADDITIONAL E SWELL PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH/LOW PRES MIGRATE N. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST THU NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA BY FRI NIGHT...AND FROM 29N65W THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA BY SAT NIGHT. THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE BY SAT. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 26N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SUN MORNING AND DISSIPATE BY LATE SUN. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE SHORTER PERIOD SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS WILL MIX WITH 10 TO 15 FT E SWELL IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA STARTING FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH LATE SAT INTO SUN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI S OF 21N W OF 95W...GMZ082. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR/EC