000 AGXX40 KNHC 271835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT WED OCT 27 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS TROUGHING TO THE NORTH LIFTS OUT...LEAVING RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A FRONT HAS STALLED FROM EASTERN TEXAS TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SETUP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE GULF. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY THU...FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NLY WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS UP TO 13-14 FT BY FRI MORNING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO BY EARLY FRI...AND FROM NW CUBA TO THE FAR SW GULF BY EARLY SAT...THEN DISSIPATE S OF THE AREA LATE SAT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG FUNNELING WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF THE STATE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO IN THE SW GULF. BASED ON THE MARINE GUIDANCE...DECIDE TO INCREASE WINDS UP TO 30 KT BEHIND THE FRONT BY FRI WITH AN AREA OF GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 21N AND W OF 95W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC NEAR 36N55W. THIS FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT...EVEN AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST. THIS IS DUE TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU. THE TRADES WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THU AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ON THE TROUGH AND MOVES INTO THE SW N ATLC. HOWEVER...FRESH NE WINDS STILL PUSH INTO ATLC PASSAGES. A WELL DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM 13N37W TO 03N43W THIS MORNING WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY SAT MORNING...AND WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. A WIND SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROPICAL WAVE. AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND A RECENT WINDSAT PASS BOTH SHOWED WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. SW N ATLC... MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS DOMINATE THE SW N ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC NEAR 36N55W. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 24N55W TO 16N58W. IN FACT...LATEST VIS SATELLITE PICTURE IS ALREADY SHOWING SOME CYCLONIC TURNING OF THE CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR UNFAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE DUE TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL SLY WINDS. WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE IS INDICATED ADDITIONAL E SWELL PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH/LOW PRES MIGRATE N. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST THU NIGHT AND EXTEND FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA BY FRI NIGHT...AND FROM 29N65W THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA BY SAT NIGHT. THE DEVELOPING LOW AND THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE BY SAT. THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 26N65W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BY SUN MORNING AND DISSIPATE BY LATE SUN. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE SHORTER PERIOD SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS WILL MIX WITH 10 TO 15 FT E SWELL IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA STARTING FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH LATE SAT INTO SUN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... ...GALE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRI S OF 21N W OF 95W...GMZ082. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR/EC