000 AGXX40 KNHC 270731 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT WED OCT 27 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS TROUGHING TO THE NORTH LIFTS OUT...LEAVING RIDGING FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. A FRONT HAS STALLED FROM THE TEXAS COAST TO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE REMNANT LOW OF RICHARD HAS LIKELY OPENED UP INTO A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF NEAR 23N95W AS EVIDENCED ON A 03Z ASCAT PASS...AND WILL DAMPEN OUT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL SETUP INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS OVER THE GULF. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF EARLY THU...REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO BY EARLY FRI...AND EXTEND FROM NW CUBA TO THE FAR SW GULF OF MEXICO BY FRI NIGHT. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE STRONG FUNNELING WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG THE COAST OF VERACRUZ STATE IN THE SW GULF. OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WINDS TO 30 KT ALONG THE VERACRUZ COAST FRI...BUT SREF ENSEMBLE OUTPUT SHOWS A 60 PERCENT CHANCE OF GALE FORCE WINDS BY LATE FRI. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH THROUGH SAT AS HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC. THIS FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED NIGHT...EVEN AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST. THIS IS DUE TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE FROM SE TO NW ACROSS THE ATLC WATERS WITHIN 500 NM NE OF THE LEEWARDS WED AND THU. THE TRADES WILL DIMINISH BY LATE THU AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS ON THE TROUGH AND MOVES TO AROUND 500 NM N OF PUERTO RIC0...ALTHOUGH FRESH NE WINDS STILL PUSH INTO ATLC PASSAGES. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 37W/38W WILL REACH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY LATE FRI...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT. A WIND SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROPICAL WAVE S OF 16N OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC E OF THE WINDWARDS FRI...AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT AND SUN. SW N ATLC... MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS DOMINATE THE SW N ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC. BUOY OBSERVATIONS HINT THAT SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL ARE STILL IN THE AREA S OF 22N E OF 67W. THIS IS ALSO WHERE FRESH TRADES PERSIST PER BUOYS AND A 0120Z ASCAT PASS...IN BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND A SW-NE TROUGH NEAR 52W MOVING NW. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW PRES DEVELOPING ALONG THIS TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS NW...WITH THE 1008 MB LOW REACHING 28N68W BY FRI MORNING. TRADES WILL DIMINISH AS THE TROUGH/LOW SHIFT INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH STRONG E WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY ON THE LOW WITHIN 400 NM TO THE NE OF THE CENTER. WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE IS INDICATED ADDITIONAL E SWELL PUSHING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS THE TROUGH/LOW MIGRATE N. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE THU NIGHT...REACH FROM BERMUDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY SAT MORNING. THE LOW WILL LIFT OUT TO THE NE LATE FRI AND EARLY SAT AHEAD THE FRONT. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE SHORTER PERIOD SEAS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE WINDS WILL MIX WITH 10 TO 15 FT E SWELL IN THE WATERS BETWEEN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND BERMUDA STARTING FRI NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH LATE SAT INTO SUN AS THE FRONT SAGS S AND STALLS FROM 23N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE BY LATE SUN. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN