000 AGXX40 KNHC 261926 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... AT 26/1500 UTC...THE LAST ADVISORY WAS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD WHICH IS NOW APPROACHING BUOY 42055 IN THE SW GULF NEAR 22N94W. THE BUOY IS REPORTING SE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT AND SEAS UP TO 4 FT. SURFACE DATA ALONG WITH THE MOST RECENT ASCAT PASS INDICATE STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW GULF...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT OVER EASTERN TEXAS. SE WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE NOTED OVER THE SW GULF. WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN. THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL OVER THE DEEP SOUTH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY THU. STRONG NE FLOW AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT LATE THU INTO FRI. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO BY LATE THU...THEN STALL FROM S FLORIDA TO THE SW GULF NEAR 19N94W BY LATE FRI...BEFORE DISSIPATING SAT. WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT BY SAT...EXCEPT FOR IN THE FAR SW GULF WHERE STRONG N WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST S OF TAMPICO. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 11 FT BEHIND THE FRONT THU NIGHT. THE NEW RUN OF THE MARINE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS POSSIBLE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF S OF 21N W OF 94W BY FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS CONTINUES TO BLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 1410 UTC VERIFIED THESE WINDS SPEEDS. THIS FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED...EVEN AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST. THIS IS DUE TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WED AFTERNOON AND WILL BE NEAR 64W THU AFTERNOON. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 36W/37W WILL REACH THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI...AND WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT. A WIND SURGE WILL ACCOMPANY THE TROPICAL WAVE S OF 16N OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI...AND THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN SAT. AN ASCAT PASS FROM AROUND 1230 UTC SHOWED NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE...PARTICULARLY FROM 07N TO 11N E OF 40W. SW N ATLC... MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS DOMINATE THE SW N ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH LOCATED IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD E OF THE BAHAMAS IN NE TO E SWELL. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL REACH 8 TO 10 FT. SEAS CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING LOW PRES WHICH IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE SE TO 27N68W BY FRI MORNING. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE SE U.S. COAST LATE THU...AND WILL REACH FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA BY LATE FRI...BEFORE STALLING FROM 31N65W THROUGH CENTRAL CUBA BY LATE SAT. THE LOW PRES WILL MERGE WITH THE FRONT BY SAT. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR