000 AGXX40 KNHC 260712 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT TUE OCT 26 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BUOY AND CMAN REPORTS INDICATE STRONG SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE FAR NW GULF...BETWEEN LOW PRES AND COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND RIDGING FROM THE SW ATLC TO NE MEXICO. MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW IS NOTED OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN GULF. WINDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF HAVE DIMINISHED SINCE YESTERDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. RICHARD WILL ENTER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AS A REMNANT LOW THIS MORNING...REACH 20N97W THIS EVENING WITH WINDS TO 20 KT...THEN DISSIPATE WED. THE SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS LIFTS OUT WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE LATER TODAY...ALLOWING THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT STALLS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AS THE UPPER FLOW DEAMPLIFIES TONIGHT. A SECOND MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WED...SENDING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY THU. STRONG NE FLOW FOLLOWS THE FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF...MAINLY THE NW GULF...LATE THU INTO FRI. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO BY EARLY FRI...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE FROM S FLORIDA TO THE S CENTRAL GULF BY SAT. WINDS DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT BY SAT...EXCEPT FOR IN THE FAR SW GULF WHERE STRONG N WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST S OF TAMPICO. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 8 TO 10 FT BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH AS MUCH AS 12 FT POSSIBLE IN THE SW GULF OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ STATE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... A JASON ALTIMETER PASS SHOWED SEAS OF 2 TO 4 FT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...INDICATING SEAS HAVE LARGELY SUBSIDED IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE RICHARD...NOW A WEAK TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO. MEANWHILE AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0138Z ALONG BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW A BROAD SWATH OF MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE WINDS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH IN THE CENTRAL N ATLC. THIS FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED...EVEN AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS MORE TO THE EAST. THIS IS DUE TO A TIGHTENING GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND A TROUGH THAT MOVES TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WED AND THU...MAINTAINING FRESH NE FLOW INTO NE CARIBBEAN WED INTO THU BEFORE DIMINISHING LATE THU. HIGH PRES BUILDS BEHIND THE TROUGH THU THROUGH SAT...TO THE NORTH OF A TROPICAL WAVE MIGRATING TOWARD GUYANA IN THE DEEP TROPICS. THIS WILL ENHANCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES PUSHING OVER THE WATERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FRI AND SAT. SW N ATLC... A 0140Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED GENERALLY MODERATE SE TO S FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA N OF 23N...ON THE SE PERIPHERY OF 1026 HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL N ATLC. THE ASCAT ALSO INDICATED 15 TO 20 KT FLOW S OF 23N...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST OF HISPANIOLA AND THE ATLC APPROACHES TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. IN ADDITION...LATEST REPORTS FROM BUOYS 41047 AND 41046 INDICATE SEAS OF 8 TO 9 FT IN E SWELL PERSIST IN THE WATERS NE OF THE BAHAMAS S OF 28N. THIS FLOW PERSISTS INTO THU...AHEAD OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE TROPICAL ATLC TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARDS. THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP A LOW PRES AROUND 1010 MB ALONG THIS TROUGH BY LATE WED NEAR 21N56W...AND SHOW IT MOVING TO ROUGHLY 24N64W BY LATE THU. THE UKMET SHOWS THE SURFACE TROUGH...BUT DOES NOT DEVELOP A LOW ALONG IT. MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE SE U.S. COAST THU NIGHT...AND PUSH SE AND REACH A POSITION FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA BY FRI NIGHT. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT. THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE LOW PRES LIFTING OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE LONG PERIOD E SWELL IN EFFECT CURRENTLY LARGELY SUBSIDES THROUGH WED W OF 67W. AS THE TROUGH/LOW APPROACHES...NEW E SWELL WITH HEIGHTS OF UP TO 8 TO 11 FT PUSHES TO 70W LATE THU THROUGH FRI. THIS WILL MIX WITH SHORTER PERIOD WIND DRIVEN SEAS OUT OF THE NORTH FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...TAKING PLACE MAINLY IN THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS TO BERMUDA BY LATE SAT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN