000 AGXX40 KNHC 251834 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT MON OCT 25 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... SE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE NOTED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE WESTERN ATLC AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD MOVING ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF NEAR 19.5N 92.2W TUE MORNING AS A REMNANT LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL REACH 20.7N 93.3W TUE EVENING AND 21.8N 94.2W WED MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING ON THU. MEANWHILE...SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE GULF WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT TONIGHT AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS TUE AND WED. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS THU MORNING. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS BRINGING INCREASING NE WINDS LATE THU AND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... TROPICAL DEPRESSION RICHARD WILL MOVE W NW ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THEN EMERGE OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 19.5N 92.2W TUE MORNING AS A REMNANT LOW. SUSTAINED WINDS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...E TO SE WINDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THERE THROUGH AT LEAST TUE NIGHT. MEANWHILE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE WITH WINDS DIMINISHING TO MODERATE WED THROUGH FRI AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH MOVES NE AND AWAY FROM THE FORECAST AREA. A COLD CORE UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS TO N OF PUERTO RICO WED INTO THU. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL FOLLOW THE UPPER FEATURE...REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ON THU. MORE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE WILL PUSH W INTO THE WATERS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS BY FRI. COMPUTER MODELS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF THIS WAVE...ENHANCED BY RIDGING TO THE N. SW N ATLC... FRESH TO STRONG TRADES ARE NOTED S OF 28N PER SURFACE DATA AND AN ASCAT PASS. THESE WINDS ARE BLOWING ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR 34N64W. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TUE AND WED AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS FURTHER E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. BUOYS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO ARE SHOWING A TONGUE OF SEAS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL IN THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS S OF 28N. THESE SEAS WILL SPREAD SE...AND BE E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY THU. A COLD CORE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS TO N OF PUERTO RICO WED INTO THU. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWS THE UPPER FEATURE...REACHING 55W WED MORNING AND 60W THU MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW PART OF THE AREA FRI MORNING AND EXTEND FROM 31N65W TO S FLORIDA FRI NIGHT. A FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLC FROM 31N45W TO 25N60W TO 24N75W. NE WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE CAN BE FOUND BEHIND THE TROUGH. IN ADDITION...NLY SWELLS ARE RAISING SEAS UP TO 13 FT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR