000 AGXX40 KNHC 250717 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 315 AM EDT MON OCT 25 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... FRESH SE FLOW IS NOTED IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA IN THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES OVER THE SW ATLC AND HURRICANE RICHARD WELL TO THE SOUTH MOVING ACROSS BELIZE INTO S MEXICO. THIS FLOW WILL DIMINISH AS RICHARD WEAKENS AND SHIFTS W. FURTHER TO THE NW...BUOY REPORTS FROM THE NW GULF OF MEXICO SHOW THAT SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IS ALREADY 15 TO 20 KT. THE MODERATE TO FRESH FLOW IS SANDWICHED IN BETWEEN HIGH PRES RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF...AND A FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TODAY AS THE FRONT SHIFTS EAST. THE FRONT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN TUE AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT LIFTS OUT...ALLOWING WINDS TO DIMINISH. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EASTERN U.S. WED INTO THU...PUSHING A REINFORCING COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS BY THU MORNING...REACHING FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO S TEXAS BY FRI MORNING...AND STALLING AND DISSIPATING FROM S FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO BY SAT MORNING. FRESH TO STRONG NE FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT THROUGH EARLY FRI...THEN DIMINISH INTO SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC W OF 55W... HURRICANE RICHARD WAS LOCATED INLAND OVER BELIZE NEAR 17.3N 88.6W WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 KT AND GUSTS TO 100 KT AT 03Z. ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 981 MB AND RICHARD IS MOVING TOWARD THE WNW AROUND 08 KT. RICHARD WILL CONTINUE THROUGH BELIZE THIS MORNING BRINGING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND RESULTANT FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES TO BELIZE...EASTERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN GUATEMALA. RICHARD IS FAR ENOUGH INLAND THAT HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY INLAND...ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE PROBABLE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS RICHARD CONTINUES WEST OVER LAND AND WEAKENS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS FROM BELIZE CITY INDICATE WINDS ARE ALREADY DIMINISHING. ELSEWHERE A 02Z ASCAT PASS SHOWED MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ATLC WATERS E OF THE LEEWARDS...SOUTH OF A 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA. THESE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH TUE AS THE HIGH PRES TO THE NORTH DIMINISHES. A COLD CORE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS TO N OF PUERTO RICO WED INTO THU. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWS THE UPPER FEATURE...AND SHIFTS NW PAST THE LEEWARDS ON THU. MORE VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE PUSHES W INTO THE WATERS E OF THE WINDWARDS BY FRI. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS ON THE N SIDE OF THIS WAVE...ENHANCED BY RIDGING TO THE N. SW N ATLC... A 02Z ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH BUOY OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG TRADES S OF 28N...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF 1028 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED NW OF BERMUDA. THESE WINDS DIMINISH TUE AND WED AS THE HIGH PRES SHIFTS FURTHER E INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. BUOYS AND SHIP OBSERVATIONS ALSO ARE SHOWING A TONGUE OF SEAS WITH SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 8 TO 10 FT IN NE SWELL IN THE AREA E OF THE BAHAMAS S OF 28N. THESE SEAS WILL SPREAD SE...AND BE E OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BY EARLY THU. A COLD CORE UPPER LOW SHIFTS ACROSS THE WATERS NE OF THE LEEWARDS TO N OF PUERTO RICO WED INTO THU. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH FOLLOWS THE UPPER FEATURE...AND SHIFTS NW PAST THE LEEWARDS ON THU. FRESH NE WINDS WILL LINGER E OF THE BAHAMAS BETWEEN THIS APPROACHING FEATURE AND WEAK RIDGING ALONG 30N. A COLD FRONT MOVES OFF THE SE U.S. COAST BY EARLY FRI...REACHING FROM BERMUDA TO S FLORIDA BY EARLY SAT. GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE SE...THEN LIFTING TO THE NE OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FRESH NE FLOW FOLLOWS THE FRONT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 19N W OF 87W...AMZ082. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN