000 AGXX40 KNHC 240729 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT SUN OCT 24 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 02Z ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH REPORTS FROM CMAN SITES IN SOUTH FLORIDA INDICATE THAT FRESH TO STRONG E TO SE WINDS PERSIST IN A BROAD SWATH OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO THIS MORNING. THIS IS IN AN AREA BETWEEN 1026 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE CAROLINAS...AND T.S. RICHARD WELL TO THE SOUTH MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH THE GULF OF HONDURAS. RICHARD IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE AS A HURRICANE TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN OVER LAND MON BEFORE MOVING INTO THE SW GULF NEAR 19N93W AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATE TUE...THEN DISSIPATE WED AND THU IN THE FAR SW GULF. MEANWHILE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN GULF LATE TUE THROUGH WED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF BY LATE THU FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NE WINDS. SW N ATLC... A 02Z ASCAT PASS ALONG WITH REPORTS FROM BUOY 41046 AND NEARBY SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW FRESH TO STRONG E WINDS FROM 22N TO 25N THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG THE TRAILING END OF A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE NE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. SHOWERS ARE MIGRATING ALONG THE TROUGH...ENHANCED BY AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...ASCAT AND OBSERVATIONS SHOW GENERALLY FRESH MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE SW N ATLC S OF 27N...ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS. LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW IS NOTED N OF 27N...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF N OF 26N E OF 70W WHERE SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOW NE WINDS UP TO 20 KT BEHIND A WEAK COLD FROM MIGRATING SE. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT AS IT SHIFTS S AND DISSIPATES THROUGH EARLY MON. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES THROUGH MON...BUT GLOBAL MODELS SHOW WINDS WILL DIMINISH LIGHTLY TUE AND WED AS THE HIGH PRES WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST. LOOKING AHEAD...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A TROUGH MOVING NW TO THE NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON THU. THE GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE AND SHOWS A LOW DEEPENING NEAR 26N66W BY LATE THU...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING A WEAKER LOW JUST TO THE EAST OF THE GFS POSITION. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM RICHARD MOVING W AT 7 KT IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16.3N 84.6W AT 0300 UTC WITH WINDS 60 KT GUSTS TO 75 KT. IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W N OF HONDURAS AND INTENSIFY INTO A HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE LATE SUN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AND 12 FT SEAS ARE WITHIN 90 NM N SEMICIRCLE. THE RADIUS OF WINDS AND SEAS IS ALSO EXPECTED TO EXPAND AS THE STORM INTENSIFIES. A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE WARNING AREA...WITH THE HIGHEST HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED WITHIN 20 NM NE OF THE CENTER AS RICHARD MOVES ASHORE. ELSEWHERE...TRADES IN THE 15 TO 20 KT RANGE ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF AREA. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .HURRICANE WARNING S OF 19N W OF 83W...AMZ082. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN