000 AGXX40 KNHC 171854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 254 PM EDT SUN OCT 17 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED ALONG THE CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST WITH WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING S-SW INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS YIELDING MILD FLOW W OF 88W AND NELY WINDS 10-15 KT ACROSS THE SE GULF...AIDED BY MONSOONAL GYRE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN AND FAR EPAC. MAX SEAS THIS MORNING WERE AT 3 FT ALONG THE S TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...AND LIKELY INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. LITTLE OVER CHANGE IN THE PATTERN AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH A WEAK N-S TROUGH EXPECTED TO DRIFT W ACROSS THE SE GULF AND WEAKEN THE FLOW BELOW 15 KT THERE. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO THE SRN MS VALLEY AND N PORTIONS OF THE GULF STATES WED MORNING WITH INCREASING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT AND MILD RETURN FLOW ALONG THE TEX COAST LIKELY TO YIELD AN MODEST INCREASE IN SHOWERS. CARIBBEAN... WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGE FROM CENTRAL SUB TROPICAL ATLC SW TO NE CARIB COMBINING WITH MONSOONAL GYRE EXTENDING FROM FAR TROPICAL EPAC E-NE INTO SE CARIB YIELDING LIGHT TRADEWINDS AND MILD SEAS E OF 70W...AND CYCLONIC FLOW W OF 75W. COOL POST FRONTAL AIR SPILLING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA AND INTO THE CARIB HAS BEEN BLOWING OFFSHORE OF THE S COAST OF CUBA AROUND 20 KT SINCE LAST NIGHT PER RECENT ASCAT PASSES...WITH THIS NELY FLOW NOW REACHING AS FAR SW AS 18N ACROSS THE NW CARIB. THIS HELPING TO PROMOTE LLVL FORCING AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS NW CARIB. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN FORECASTING VARYING SOLUTIONS OF A MONSOONAL LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SW CARIB...AND HAVE RECENTLY BEEN TRENDING FARTHER W AND MOVING TO ALONG THE COAST OR COASTAL WATERS OF NICARAGUA...WHERE TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS WOULD BE MUCH LESS LIKELY. NLY FLOW SPILLING DOWN CARIB COAST OF NICARAGUA DEPICTED NEAR 20 KT IN CNVTN PER A LATE MORNING ASCAT PASS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL TROUGH AND EMBEDDED LOW DRIFT NW AND LIMIT SPACING FOR THIS N FLOW TO FUNNEL S. OTHERWISE...UNLESS LOW EMBEDDED IN THIS GYRE BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND IS SHIFTS SLOWLY NW...WINDS ACROSS THE W AND SW CARIB ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CIRCULATION ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST BY GLOBAL OPERATIONAL MODELS TO REMAIN UNDER 20 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 5 FT...EXCEPT NEAR CNVTN. LOOK FOR MODERATE TO STRONG CNVTN TO PERSISTS OF 15N W OF 80W THROUGH MON MORNING AND GRADUALLY SHIFT NW NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLC... A COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC SW ACROSS THE SE BAHAMAS TO THE REMNANTS OF PAULA NEAR 21.5N77W ALONG THE NE COAST OF CUBA. NW WINDS TO 20 KT FOLLOW BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29N AND E OF THE AREA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE ALONG THE BOUNDARY W OF 60W. THE PORTIONS OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE BAHAMAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY WHILE E PORTIONS DRIFT SLOWLY SE AND STALL ALONG 21N/22N BY EARLY TUE. NW TO N LONG PERIOD SWELL HAS PUSHED INTO THE NE WATERS YIELDING SEAS 8 TO 12 FT AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE S AND SE THROUGH TUE...MOVING THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN PASSAGES. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING