000
AGXX40 KNHC 161742
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
140 PM EDT SAT OCT 16 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO 
JUST SOUTH OF THE TEXAS/LOUISIANA BORDER. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH 
PRES WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE 
WESTERN ATLANTIC...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN GULF MAINTAINING GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE FLOW 
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE HIGH PRES WILL WEAKEN MON AS A SHORT WAVE 
TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. INCREASED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OVER 
THE S CENTRAL AND SW GULF AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE MAY INCREASES 
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS MON INTO TUE. A STRONGER MID TO 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY 
WED...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE 
NE GULF WED. HIGH PRES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING MODERATE N TO 
NE FLOW ACROSS THE GULF WED AND THU.

CARIBBEAN...
SEVERAL SHIP OBSERVATIONS SHOWED 20 KT 
WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH 
LAND-BASED OBSERVATIONS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE N HINT 
OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRES AREA BETWEEN THE REMNANT LOW OF 
PAULA ON THE N COAST OF CUBA AND A QUASI-STATIONARY TROUGH S OF 
15N THROUGH PANAMA. THIS SURFACE HIGH IS THE WESTERNMOST 
EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...AND WILL DISSIPATE LATER 
TODAY AS AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST...ALLOWING THE 
WINDS TO DIMINISH. OTHERWISE THE ONLY POSSIBLE AREA OF WINDS 
NEAR 20 KT IS N FLOW OVER THE FAR SW GULF BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND 
THE NICARAGUAN COAST. CONVECTION PERSISTS MAINLY S OF 12N AND 
ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN THE SW GULF 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS LESS CONFIDENCE CONCERNING 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. MARINE FORECAST REFLECTS A BLEND 
OF ECMWF AND GFS POSITION OF THE LOW EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLC... 
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 28N65 TO THE REMNANT LOW OF PAULA NEAR 
23N77W ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA. NW WINDS TO 20 KT FOLLOW 
BEHIND THE FRONT N OF 29 E OF 70W. A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS AND 
TSTMS IS NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS ALONG THE FRONT. THE 
FRONT WILL SHIFT S AND STALL ALONG 23N/24N SUN AND DISSIPATE 
MON. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN 
PORTION AREA FROM THE N FLORIDA COAST EASTWARD TOWARD S OF 
BERMUDA FROM LATE SUN TO EARLY TUE. TRADE WIND FLOW WILL 
INCREASE TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGH PRES S OF 27N FROM LATE MON 
THROUGH MIDWEEK. MEANWHILE NORTHERLY LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM 8 TO 
12 FT WILL PUSH INTO THE WATERS N OF 28N E OF 73W LATER 
TODAY...AND COVER THE WATERS N OF 25N E OF 70W BY SUN 
NIGHT...BEFORE SLIDING E OF THE AREA BY MON AFTERNOON.

WARNINGS...

ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.
  
GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN