000 AGXX40 KNHC 151835 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 235 PM EDT FRI OCT 15 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1022 MB HIGH PRES CENTERED OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH STATES AND NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT CLEARED THROUGH THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS BEFORE DISSIPATING LAST NIGHT. BUOY OBSERVATIONS...LAND-BASED OBSERVATIONS AND WINDSAT OVER AND ALONG THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO INDICATE THE FRESH NORTH WINDS PREVIOUSLY OVER THE AREA ARE DIMINISHING. GFS AND ECMWF DEPICT A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST THROUGH THE SW GULF THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE NORTHERLY FLOW OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF TO VEER MORE SE BY LATE SUNDAY. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OTHERWISE. CARIBBEAN... THE MAIN AREA TO WATCH IS THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN WHERE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE ALONG THE COASTS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. THIS IS DUE TO PERSISTENT FRESH SW MONSOON FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC SIDE OF THE ISTHMUS CONVERGING WITH FRESH NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF A TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 16N81W TO 10N81W. SHIP OBSERVATIONS INDICATE 20 KT WINDS ARE PERSISTING THIS AFTERNOON ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE ULTIMATE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRES IN THIS AREA...WITH GFS STILL SHOWING THE STRONGEST DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THE PERSISTENT LATENT HEAT RELEASES FROM THE ONGOING CONVECTION...SOME FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IS PLAUSIBLE OVER TIME. ANY DEVELOPMENT IS SEVERAL DAYS OFF STILL...AND THE EXTENDED MARINE FORECAST IS A BLEND OF GUIDANCE SHOWING A SLOWLY DEVELOPING LOW MOVING FROM THE PANAMA COAST TO OFF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MAX WINDS HELD AT 20 TO 25 KT ON THE NORTH SIDE OF LOW. FURTHER EAST...AS HIGH PRES WEAKENS OVER THE SW N ATLC...WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH PERHAPS THE EXCEPTION OF ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COLOMBIAN COAST. IN THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN...REPORTS FROM BUOY 42056 INDICATE THE PREVIOUSLY FRESH TO STRONG WINDS RELATED TO THE NOW DEFUNCT PAULA HAVE DIMINISHED TO 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO 4 FT OR SO AS WELL. ATLANTIC... TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA WAS OVER N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22.8N 79.5W 1009 MB AT 1500 UTC MOVING E AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT GUSTS 25 KT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION PAULA WILL MOVE TO 22.5N 77.8W AS A REMNANT LOW THIS AFTERNOON...AND DISSIPATE BY TUE MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N70W TO 23N78W...AHEAD OF AA WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO 26N80W. AN ASCAT PASS AT 14Z SHOWED A SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KT WINDS OUT OF THE SW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE FRONT IS WEAK FOR THE MOMENT...BUT A SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. WILL GIVE THE FRONT A REINFORCING SHOT THROUGH SAT MORNING. BY SAT MORNING...THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT FROM 22N65W TO THE MONA PASSAGE...WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 29N65 TO 22N79W. BY SUN MORNING...THE TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE...AND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT SE THEN STALL FROM 25N65W TO CENTRAL CUBA. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY EARLY MON AS HIGH PRES BUILDS TO THE NORTH. LONG PERIOD N SWELL WITH HEIGHTS TO 12 FT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS E OF 73W STARTING LATE SAT. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER CHRISTENSEN