000 AGXX40 KNHC 120641 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 AM EDT TUE OCT 12 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... 1016 MB HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS FOUND ACROSS THE GULF ASIDE FROM THE SE GULF WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT REMAINS RELATIVELY TIGHT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES TO THE S OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. NE WINDS TO 20 KT LIE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. OVER THE NW GULF...15 KT WINDS SOUTHERLY WINDS LIE WHERE THE PRES GRADIENT IS BUILDING BETWEEN THE HIGH AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH TEXAS. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING THIS WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NW GULF COAST EARLY WED MORNING AND DISSIPATE IT OVER THE CENTRAL GULF BY WED NIGHT. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON WINDS REACHING 20 KT IN THE WESTERN GULF WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING WHEN A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS FRONT WHICH WILL PASS THROUGH MUCH OF THE GULF BY FRI. BY THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST DECREASES CONSIDERABLY BECAUSE IT BECOMES MORE DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF NOW TROPICAL STORM PAULA IN THE NW CARIBBEAN. PAULA IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AND TURN E TOWARD WESTERN CUBA THROUGH SAT. THE CURRENT FORECAST DOES NOT TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO THE GULF...BUT IT DOES ALLOW FOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE GULF ZONE. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... HIGH PRES WILL SIT ALONG 31N TODAY WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE SW N ATLC N OF 27N AND ELY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE IN MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 25N EXCEPT OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF A SURFACE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NE OF THE AREA BY LATE TUE. UNCERTAINTY COMES INTO THE FORECAST BY WED WHEN THE MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON SHEDDING SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS ON ITS WAY TOWARD THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT BY THU NIGHT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS ENERGY...WITH NE WINDS EXPECTED TO BUILD ON THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH AS IT STRETCHES NORTHEAST. THE MODELS DIFFER ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH AND WINDS AROUND IT. THE GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE STRONGER SOLUTION IT HAD YESTERDAY...BUT IT STILL DEVELOPS A SPOT LOW ON THE TROUGH. IT REMAINS ON THE MORE VIGOROUS SIDE OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE MODELS DO AGREE THAT THIS ENERGY WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE AMPLIFYING DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE SE COAST THU AND FRI. THE GFS HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE SPEED OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH THE OTHER MODELS...BUT IT REMAINS ON THE FASTER SIDE OF THE CONSENSUS. THEREFORE...WILL ADJUST THE GFS TOWARD A SLOWER COLD FRONT MOVING OFF THE N FL COAST AND A WEAKER TROUGH STRETCHING INTO ITS LEADING EDGE AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THU/FRI. MEANWHILE...WINDS REMAIN UNDER 20 KT IN THE TROPICAL N ATLC THROUGH THE PERIOD. CARIBBEAN SEA... NOW TROPICAL STORM PAULA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY MORNING AND SLOWLY MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE YUCATAN CHANNEL THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THEN WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AND TURN E TOWARD WESTERN CUBA THROUGH SAT. THE FORECAST WITH PAULA BECOMES ESPECIALLY UNCERTAIN BY THU WHEN THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE SE U.S. PASSES N OF PAULA. HOW MUCH OF AN INFLUENCE THIS TROUGH HAS ON PAULA IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR PAULA TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT E AS A RESULT OF THE TROUGH. THE GFS HAS BACKED AWAY FROM THE STRONG SOLUTION IT HAD HERE LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W IS FORECAST TO PASS S OF PAULA AND MAY HELP FEED SOME MOISTURE TO THE SYSTEM AS IT DOES. CURRENTLY...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRES THAT HAS MOVED IN N OF THE CARIBBEAN IS ALLOWING FRESH TRADE WINDS TO BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO THE E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. FRESH TO MODERATE TRADES ARE EXPECTED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .HURRICANE WARNING N OF 16N W OF 83W...AMZ082. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER