000 AGXX40 KNHC 091823 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT SAT OCT 09 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. A WINDSAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING AND A RECENT ASCAT PASS BOTH CONFIRMED THESE WIND SPEEDS. THE PRES GRADIENT IS TIGHTEST OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOWER PRES TO THE SE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. 15 KT NE WINDS ARE STILL NOTED OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND NEAR THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. HIGH PRES WILL MOVE E INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF MON AND WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE NE GULF TUE AND WED WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND. SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO PICK UP TO 15 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF BY MON. THE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON BRINGING A WEAK COLD FRONT TO THE NW GULF COAST WED MORNING. NE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15 KT OVER THE SE GULF YET AGAIN ON TUE AND WED AS THE PRES GRADIENT BUILDS BETWEEN THE STATIONARY TROUGHING IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND HIGH PRES PASSING TO THE N. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AT 11 AM...HURRICANE OTTO IS E OF AREA NEAR 30.7N 55.7W MOVING NE AT 25 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 65 KT GUSTS 80 KT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND W OF OTTO. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF OTTO WILL EXTEND FROM 23N65W TO 19N69W TONIGHT...FROM 24N65W TO 20N73W SUN MORNING...FROM 25N65W TO 21N71W MON MORNING AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TUE INTO WED. ELSEWHERE...WINDS ARE QUICKLY DIMINISHING BELOW 20 KT WHILE NE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT OVER BOTH THE SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC ZONES BY TONIGHT. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALONG 31N SUN THROUGH TUE WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE SW N ATLC N OF 27N AND ELY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE IN MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 25N. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 13N79W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 14N81W SUN MORNING...NEAR 16N82W MON MORNING...AND NEAR 18N84W TUE MORNING. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM JAMAICA TO THE LOW CENTER WILL MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE LOW PRES. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. A COUPLE OF SHIPS LOCATED N OF PANAMA REPORTED WLY WINDS THIS MORNING WHICH CORROBORATED THE PRESENCE OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. SHIP ZCDF4 APPROACHING THE LOW PRES INDICATED SE WINDS OF 25-30 KT. STRONG NLY WINDS CONTINUES TO FUNNEL S INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO NEAR 65W SUN MORNING...NEAR 70W MON MORNING AND NEAR 75W IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 KT BEHIND THE EAVE AXIS IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN N OF THE AREA AND ALLOW FOR TRADE WINDS TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN MON THROUGH WED. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR