000 AGXX40 KNHC 080624 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 225 AM EDT THU OCT 07 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH THE PRES GRADIENT TIGHTEST OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND T.S. OTTO IN THE ATLC E OF THE BAHAMAS. N TO NE WINDS 15-20 KT CURRENTLY LIE OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA WITH 10-15 KT NE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF AND GENERALLY WEAKER ELSEWHERE. THE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN OVER THE SE GULF AS OTTO MOVES NE AWAY FROM THE HIGH PRES IN THE NW GULF AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW 20 KT AS A RESULT. HIGH PRES WILL SHIFT E INTO THE N CENTRAL GULF SUN THROUGH TUE WITH MOSTLY LIGHT TO GENTLE WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND SE WINDS PICKING UP TO 15 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN GULF EARLY NEXT WEEK. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM OTTO WAS CENTERED NEAR 24.1N 66.6W AT 0300 UTC AND IS FORECAST TO BECOME AS STRONG AS 60 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WELL NE OF THE FORECAST AREA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 22N TO 27N E OF 68W. THE 0112 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWS A LARGE 25-33 KT WIND FIELD OUTSIDE OF THE 34-KT WIND AREA ASSOCIATED WITH OTTO. THE GFS FORECAST IS REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOR OTTO COMPARED TO THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS...SO THE GFS WAS USED AS A BASE FOR THE GRIDDED MARINE AND HIGH SEAS FORECASTS AS WELL AS THE WIND/WAVE CHARTS. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD ALONG 31N SUN THROUGH TUE WITH MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS IN THE SW N ATLC N OF 27N AND ELY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE IN MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 25N...WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC S OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH LEFT OVER THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF OTTO. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 49W WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TROPICAL N ATLC FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT WITH ACTIVE WEATHER AND WINDS AROUND 20 KT ACCOMPANYING IT. CARIBBEAN SEA... GRADIENT WINDS OVER 20 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN BETWEEN T.S. OTTO AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO ITS SE ARE BEGINNING TO DIMINISH. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT REMAINS RELATIVELY STATIONARY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. STRONG NLY WINDS FUNNEL S INTO THE SW CARIBBEAN W OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT AS OTTO PULLS AWAY AND THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS BETWEEN OTTO AND HIGH PRES OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO...BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON OR TUE. THE FORECAST BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY ALONG 49W IS EXPECTED TO BE IMPACTED BY THIS BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE CARIBBEAN. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE WAVE COULD BREAK UP THIS TROUGHING OR VICE VERSA. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST CALLS FOR THE TROUGHING TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN INTO TUE. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .AMZ088...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM 22N-27N E OF 68W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER SCHAUER/GR