000 AGXX40 KNHC 051831 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT TUE OCT 05 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES ACROSS THE REGION IS PRODUCING N TO NE WINDS 15-20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF WITH 10-15 KT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN HALF. THE HIGH PRES WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN WED THROUGH FRI. WEAK HIGH PRES CENTER WILL BE OVER THE NW GULF FRI WITH GENTLE TO MODERATE BREEZE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WEST PARTS OF THE GULF. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRES ACROSS THE AREA AND A LOW PRES...POSSIBLE TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE...OVER THE SW N ATLC WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THU. SW N ATLC... A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N74W TO CENTRAL CUBA WILL DRIFT TO 31N72W TO CENTRAL CUBA WED. AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 31N70W TO EASTERN CUBA WED NIGHT. N TO NE WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE BLOWING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH BUILDING SEAS TO 9 TO 13 FT. A WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N65W IS PRODUCING A LARGE BAND OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA EXTENDING NORTHWARD OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD AT NEAR 10 KT. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLC HIGH LOCATED NEAR 34N49W AND THE LOW PRES IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE MAINLY N AND E OF THE LOW CENTER. A GALE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WELL-DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED N OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO TO NEAR 12N76W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF TROUGH AXIS W OF 68W. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR THE TSTMS. S TO SW WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ARE E OF THE TROUGH AFFECTING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS CORROBORATED THESE WIND SPEEDS. FRESH TO STRONG N WINDS WILL DOMINATE THE NW AND SW PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA MAINLY W OF 80W MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IN ABOUT 72 HOURS ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW. THIS DISTURBANCE IS SHOWING NO SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION...AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR