000
AGXX40 KNHC 021833
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
235 PM EDT SAT OCT 02 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE BREEZE OVER GULF OF MEXICO...BUT AS 
HIGH PRES OVER CENTRAL PLAINS BUILDS TONIGHT...N-NE WINDS 
INCREASE TO FRESH BREEZE AND BECOME STRONG E OF 88W THROUGH WED.

ATLC SURFACE TROUGH FROM 31N72W TO 22N77W REMAIN STATIONARY 
THROUGH EARLY MON THEN GET REINFORCED BY COLD FRONT OFF EASTERN 
U.S. COAST LATE MON...MERGE AND CONTINUE E TO 31N70W TO CENTRAL 
CUBA TUE AND FROM 31N68W TO E CUBA WED.  GUIDANCE SHOW FRESH TO 
STRONG BREEZE W OF COLD FRONT UPON MERGING AND INCREASE TO NEAR 
GALE BY THU.  WHILE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING 
N-NE ALONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY SUN AND MON...UNCERTAINTY REIGNS. 

TROPICAL WAVE WELL E OF ZONE APPROACHES SE CORNER MON NIGHT OR 
TUE WITH POSSIBILITY OF LOW PRES DEVELOPING IN ITS BOUNDARY. 
MOST MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO AND WHILE ENVIRONMENT IS 
NOT PRECISELY FAVORABLE...W CANNOT DISCARD CONSENSUS OF MODELS
COMPLETELY.

TROUGH ACROSS WESTERN CARIBBEAN FROM 20N77W TO 14N78W  WEAKEN 
AND DISSIPATE LATE SUN.  DEVELOPING LOW PRES EXPECTED TO MOVE N 
ACROSS E CUBA ALONG BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY INTO SW N ATLC...BUT 
JURY IS STILL OUT ON ITS FULL REALIZATION.  TROPICAL WAVE E OF 
AREA MOVE INTO TROPICAL ATLC ZONE SUN AND INTO EASTERN CARIBBEAN 
MON AND TUE THEN INTO CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WED.  AS MENTIONED IN 
ABOVE PARAGRAPH MODEL CONSENSUS PRESENTS THIS SCENARIO BUT 
DOUBTS RISE ABOUT ADVERSE UPPER ENVIRONMENT ALLOWING IT TO 
HAPPEN.

WARNINGS...

SW N ATLC...
.NONE

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.
  
GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER WALLY BARNES