000 AGXX40 KNHC 291536 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1145 AM EDT WED SEP 29 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING N-S FROM FL BIG BEND TO YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL SHIFT E AND SE OF AREA TONIGHT INTO THU AS TS NICOLE LIFTS NE OF AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE GULF DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT THU. AS POST TROPICAL LOW OF NICOLE RACES OFF TO N A SECONDARY N SURGE WILL SHIFT S ACROSS AREA THIS WEEKEND TURNING WINDS TO NE AT 15-20 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TS NICOLE OVER W CUBA WILL MOVE N OF AREA ACROSS FL STRAITS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT...BUT WILL DRAG A TROUGH SLOWLY E ACROSS CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH EARLY THU. THERE STILL IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A SECOND LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THIS PERSISTENT TROUGH THIS WEEKEND. MODERATE ELY TRADES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SEAS INCREASING NE PART AS E SWELLS PROPAGATE THROUGH NE PASSAGES. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WILL PREVAIL OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH LATE THU NIGHT. A WIND SURGE PRECEDING A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PRODUCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADES OVER THE N PART OF THE AREA FRI. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC THIS WEEKEND. SW N ATLC... TS NICOLE WILL MOVE ACROSS W CUBA THROUGH THE FL STRAITS EARLY TONIGHT THEN TRANSITION TO POST TROPICAL AS IT RACES NE OF AREA THU MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FORCE...AND LATER GALE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUT TO ABOUT 250 NM E OF CENTER WITH WINDS ONLY 15-20 KT OVER W SEMICIRCLE. ADJUSTED W EDGE OF WARNING TO ALONG 80W ALLOWING OFFSHORE WARNINGS TO MESH IN WELL OFFSHORE COASTAL ZONES N OF 29N. AS POST TROPICAL NICOLE CONTINUES N IT WILL DRAG A WEAK FRONT...OR TROUGH...E TO ALONG PSN 31N77W TO 23N79W THU AFTERNOON...WITH THE TROUGH BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FROM 31N74W TO 21N75W FRI AFTERNOON THROUGH SUN. SEEMS LIKE A SECONDARY N SURGE ARRIVES OVER WATERS ALONG 31N W OF TROUGH SAT MORNING ACCOMPANIED BY A N SWELL TRAIN DRIVING SEAS TO 11 FT W OF TROUGH LATE SAT NIGHT. WATCH FOR A SECOND LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CARIBBEAN SEGMENT OF THIS TROUGH OVER WEEKEND. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TS AND GALE WARNING BETWEEN 73W AND 80W. CARIBBEAN... .AMZ082...TS WARNING N OF 20N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON