000
AGXX40 KNHC 281608
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1210 PM EDT TUE SEP 28 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT OVER SE WATERS IS SLOWING ATTM EXPECT FRONT 
TO ACCELERATE SE INTO CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH TD 16 
DEVELOPING INTO TS STORM OVER NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. EXPECT NLY 
WINDS TO CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KT BAY OF CAMPECHE TONIGHT INTO 
EARLY WED THEN DIMINISH TO 15 KT LATE WED. ALTHOUGH N WINDS ARE 
ONLY AT 10 TO 15 KT E GULF IN WAKE OF FRONT EXPECT GRADIENT TO 
TIGHTEN SUPPORTING NLY 20 KT WED AS CYCLONE LIFTS N ACROSS CUBA. 
N WINDS CONTINUE AT 10-15 KT ALL WATERS WED NIGHT THROUGH SAT 
THEN TURN NE AND INCREASE TO 20 KT AS SECONDARY SURGE SWEEPS S 
INTO NORTHERN WATERS LATE SAT.     

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TD 16 FORMED THIS MORNING AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO TS 
AROUND SUNSET TODAY AND LIFT N ACROSS CUBA TO CAY SAL BANK EARLY 
WED MORNING. AS STORM CONTINUES N OF AREA IT WILL DRAG THE 
FRONTAL TROUGH SLOWLY E ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS WITH A SW TO 
NW WIND SHIFT ALONG AXIS...AND TIGHT GRADIENT NW CARIBBEAN E OF 
TROUGH AXIS. MODELS STILL SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF SECOND TROPICAL 
LOW ALONG THE TROUGH AXIS S OF JAMAICA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT...AND 
MOVE THE LOW N ALONG THE FRONTAL TROUGH SUN...CROSSING CUBA MON. 
EASTERLY TRADES AT 10-15 KT E CARIBBEAN AND TROPICAL ATLC WATERS 
TILL AN EASTERLY SURGE...ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20 KT WINDS...MOVES W 
TO ALONG 55W AROUND SUNRISE THU AND REACHING THE LEEWARDS FRI 
NIGHT AND SAT. 

SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
THE COLD FRONT MOVED OFF THE GA COAST THIS MORNING AND IS STILL 
EXPECTED TO ALMOST STALL ALONG THE FL E COAST TONIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW DEVELOPING TS OVER NW CARIBBEAN TO MOVE ACROSS CUBA 
TONIGHT THEN ACCELERATE N ALONG THIS QUASI STATIONARY FRONT WED 
AND WED NIGHT INTO THU. AS LOW RACES N OF AREA WILL GET THE 
FRONT MOVING E AGAIN THU AND EARLY FRI. THE FRONT STALLS AGAIN 
AND SETS UP THE NE TRACK FOR A POSSIBLE SECOND TROPICAL LOW TO 
MOVE OUT THE CARIBBEAN THIS WEEKEND. 

WARNINGS...

SW N ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.AMZ082...TS WRNG N OF 17N BETWEEN 77W AND 82W. 

TROPICAL N ATLC...
.AMZ080...TS WRNG W OF 73W.
  
GULF OF MEXICO...
.GMZ086...TS WRNG S OF 26N E OF 82W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON