000
AGXX40 KNHC 271732
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
135 PM EDT MON SEP 27 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FL BIG BEND TO NE MEXICO WHILE THE 
REMNANT LOW PRES OF MATTHEW IS STILL SPINNING NEAR 18N92W. BROAD 
LOW PRES OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCE A SURFACE LOW NEAR 
21N84W LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE. AS THIS LOW DEEPENS IT WILL PULL 
THE FRONT SE ABSORBING THE MATTHEW REMNANTS...WITH THE FRONT 
MOVING SE OF THE AREA LATE TUE. THE CARIBBEAN LOW WILL RACE N 
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT CROSSING W CUBA INTO THE WESTERN FL 
STRAITS WED...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. NLY WINDS W OF THE 
FRONT WILL INCREASE SOME...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SW WATERS TUE AND 
TUE NIGHT. AS THE LOW MOVES E OF THE FL ON WED THE GRADIENT WILL 
BEGIN TO RELAX OVER THE NW WATERS WITH CONDITIONS SPREADING SE 
TO ALL WATERS FRI. MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN DEVELOPMENT...STRENGTH 
AND TRACK OF CARIBBEAN LOW WHICH WILL DETERMINE STRENGTH AND 
DURATION OF NORTHERLY FLOW OVER GULF WATERS.
    
CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD LOW PRES OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING LARGE CLUSTERS 
OF INTENSE CONVECTION. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO 
IS EXPECTED TO RACE SE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS AS A SURFACE 
LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 21N84W LATE TONIGHT INTO TUE MORNING. THE 
LOW...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...SHOULD MOVE N ALONG THE 
QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL TROUGH TUE NIGHT AND WED CROSSING W 
CUBA. AS THE LOW CONTINUES NORTHWARD PAST BAHAMAS IT WILL TRAIL 
A TROUGH SW ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THIS WILL SET UP THE 
POSSIBILITY OF A SECOND LOW OR LOWS DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROUGH 
THU NIGHT AND FRI WITH THE PATTERN REPEATING. ALTHOUGH THE 
TIMING...POSITION...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THESE LOWS IS VERY 
UNCERTAIN...WINDS AND SEAS AND CONVECTION ARE ALL EXPECTED TO 
INCREASE OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. 
OTHERWISE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
AN E TO W RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA WILL RETRACT E ALLOWING A COLD 
FRONT TO MOVE OFF THE GA COAST TONIGHT BUT IMMEDIATELY STALL N 
TO S ALONG THE FL E COAST THROUGH THU...THEN MOVE E AGAIN FRI 
AND SAT. AS LOW PRES...POSSIBLY A TROPICAL CYCLONE...DEVELOPS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN IT SHOULD TRACK N ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH 
THE FL STRAITS AND NORTHERN BAHAMAS. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO 
INCREASE THROUGHOUT AREA BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON 
TIMING...STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS LOW AND A SECOND LOW THAT 
MAY FOLLOW LATE THIS WEEK.

WARNINGS...

SW N ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.
  
GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON