000
AGXX40 KNHC 260641 CCA
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
250 AM EDT SUN SEP 26 2010

CORRECTED TIME

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW GULF TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT 
WILL THEN REACH FROM NEAR THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW 
TO NORTHERN MEXICO MON MORNING...FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE TUE MORNING WHERE IT WILL STALL AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN 
THROUGH THU. FRESH TO STRONG N TO NE WINDS WILL BE FOUND BEHIND 
THE FRONT...WHICH WILL INCREASE SEAS TO 8 TO 10 FT OVER THE BAY 
OF CAMPECHE TUE NIGHT...THEN SUBSIDE THROUGH THU. 

UNCERTAINTIES REMAIN IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST WITH POSSIBLE LOW 
PRES THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY. 
THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE NW TOWARDS THE VICINITY OF WESTERN 
CUBA WED AND THU. IF THIS SCENARIO OCCURS...THIS WILL RESULT IN 
TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF 
THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF WED AND THU WITH INCREASING WINDS 
AND BUILDING SEAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AT 0300 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MATTHEW WAS NEAR 17.0N91.0W OR 
ABOUT 75 MILES W OF TIKAL GUATEMALA. MATTHEW WILL WEAKEN TO A 
REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT. ACTIVE CONVECTION REMAINS OVER THE 
WESTERN CARIBBEAN. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DEVELOP A LOW 
OVER THE WESTERN GULF BY MONDAY MORNING...THEN MOVE THE LOW 
NORTHWARD TOWARD EASTERN CUBA BY WED NIGHT..THOUGH THERE 
CONTINUES TO BE UNCERTAINTIES IN THE TIMING AND INTENSITY OF 
THIS LOW. IN ANY EVENT...WHATEVER THE MAGNITUDE AND EXACT 
LOCATION OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THERE WILL BE 
INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN...PROBABLY BEGINNING TUE AND CONTINUING THROUGH THU. 
OTHERWISE...MODERATE TRADE WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE 
REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. 

SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
A RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST N OF THE AREA THROUGH MON...THEN SHIFT 
E TUE THROUGH THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES JUST OFFSHORE THE 
SE U.S. COAST TUE. THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT MOVE PAST THE FAR NW 
PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC BEFORE STALLING. MODERATE TO FRESH 
WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH TUE. THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION 
OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT IS FORECAST TO FORM IN THE WESTERN 
CARIBBEAN. IF THE CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS CORRECT...WINDS AND 
SEAS MAY INCREASE OVER THE FAR SW PART OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS 
TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.

WARNINGS...

SW N ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.
  
GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER AL