000 AGXX40 KNHC 251854 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT SAT SEP 25 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO SW JUST N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN THROUGH SUN...WHILE A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE GULF MOVES SLOWLY WESTWARD. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE GULF SHOW E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT THE AREA. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT THROUGHOUT THE GULF...WITH LOWER SEAS IN THE 2-4 FT RANGE IN THE SW GULF. AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH S TOWARDS THE GULF...MOVING OFFSHORE THE NW GULF SUN NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL THEN REACH FROM NEAR THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO NORTHERN MEXICO MON MORNING...FROM THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TUE MORNING...FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE WED WHERE IT WILL STALL AND WEAKEN THROUGH THU. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME N TO NE AT 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION AND SW PART OF THE SW ZONE WHERE WINDS WILL BE 20 KT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BRIEFLY BUILDS SEAS UP TO 10 FT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DAYS WED BEFORE LOWERING TO 8 FT THU. UNCERTAINTIES IN THIS FORECAST LIES IN THE LONG TERM WITH POSSIBLE LOW PRES THAT IS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA BEGINNING ON DAY 3 NOW THAT TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION OVER BELIZE. MODELS KEEP HINTING AS SUCH A SCENARIO WITH LOW MOVING NW TOWARDS THE VICINITY OF WESTERN CUBA WED AND THU. THIS WILL RESULT IN TIGHTENING OF THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF WED AND THU LEADING TO INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS. CARIBBEAN SEA... AT 1800 UTC...TROPICAL STORM HAS WEAKENED TO A DEPRESSION OVER BELIZE. HOWEVER...DUE TO ITS BROAD CIRCULATION A LARGE AREA OF E TO SE WINDS OF 20-30 KT WINDS IS CONFINED TO W OF 83W BASED ON AN ASCAT PASS FROM NEAR 1500 UTC THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20 KT LATE CURRENT MAX SEAS OF 15 FT NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 8 FT LATE TONIGHT. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS S OF 21N W OF 81W WILL SLOWLY SPREAD IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA THROUGH SUN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 70W AND 79W. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE THE FIRST SIGNS OF THE NEXT LOW PRES SYSTEM SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS TO EVOLVE AS NEXT WEEK. WILL AWAIT FOR UPDATED MODEL RUNS FOR CONFIRMATION ON TIMING AND PROGRESS OF THIS NEXT SYSTEM EXPECTED TO FORM. IN ANY EVENT... WHATEVER THE MAGNITUDE AND EXACT LOCATION IS OF THIS SYSTEM IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THERE AGAIN WILL BE AN EPISODE OF INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN PROBABLY BEGINNING ON DAY 3 AND CONTINUING THROUGH DAY 5. OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY LIGHT E WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST N OF THE AREA THROUGH MON...THEN SHIFT E TUE THROUGH THU AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES TO JUST OFFSHORE THE SE U.S. COAST TUE...AND INTO THE FAR NW WATERS WED BEFORE IT BECOMES STATIONARY THROUGH THU. RATHER LIGHT E-SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE AREA...WITH PERIODS OF E 15-20 KT WINDS BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA THROUGH THU. DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM THAT FORMS IN THE WESTERN NEXT CARIBBEAN...WINDS AND SEAS MAY INCREASE OVER THE FAR SW PART OF THE SW N ATLC WATERS WED AND THU. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE