000 AGXX40 KNHC 241839 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 240 PM EDT FRI SEP 24 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO SW JUST N OF THE AREA WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT..WHILE A WEAK SURFACE IS FOUND OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE GULF. LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS FROM ACROSS THE GULF SHOW E TO SE WINDS OF 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT EXCEPT IN THE SW ZONE WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTER FROM THE N TO NE AT 5-10 KT OVER THE FAR WESTERN SECTION. SEAS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT THROUGHOUT THE GULF...WITH LOWER SEAS IN THE 2-3 FT RANGE IN THE SW GULF. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT REACHES FROM NEAR THE FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE SW TO SOUTHERN TEXAS BY MON...THEN WEAKEN FROM N FLORIDA TO THE CENTRAL TUE AND ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WED. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BECOME N TO NE AT 10-15 KT THROUGHOUT... EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN PORTION AND SW PART OF THE SW ZONE WHERE WINDS WILL BE 20 KT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BUILDS SEAS UP TO THE RANGE OF 9-12 FT IN THE FAR SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE DAYS 4 (TUE) AND 5 (WED). CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE NE COAST OF NICARAGUA IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION AS MOVES INLAND OVERNIGHT INTO SAT. LATEST NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW KEEPS THE REMNANTS OF MATTHEW AS A WEAKENING LOW OVER THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA MON THROUGH WED. BASED ON THIS WINDS AND SEAS MAY NOT INCREASE AS MUCH IN THE S CENTRAL GULF DURING THAT TIME FRAME. CARIBBEAN SEA... AT 1800 UTC...TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW WAS NEAR 14.6N 83.0W... OR ABOUT 30 MILES SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/ HONDURAN BORDER MOVING W AT 17 KT. LATEST NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS MATTHEW MAKING LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...THEN MOVE OVER NORTHERN HONDURAS TONIGHT AND SAT...WHILE WEAKENING TO A DEPRESSION. THE DEPRESSION THEN IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND BELIZE NEAR 16.0N 89.0W BY EARLY SAT EVENING...FURTHER INLAND TO NORTHERN GUATEMALA BY SUN MORNING...AND TRACK N TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA AS NEARLY STATIONARY WEAKENING REMNANT LOW MON THROUGH WED. MAIN AREA OF EMPHASIS REGARDING 20 TO 30 KT WINDS OUTSIDE THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WITH MATTHEW BASED ON BUOY AND ON A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS FROM THIS MORNING IS OVER THE AREA N OF 14N AND W OF 74W. IN ADDITION TO NUMEROUS TSTMS IN SQUALLS WITHIN 180 NM OF MATTHEW...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ELSEWHERE S OF 18N W OF 69W. THIS ACTIVITY IS PERHAPS THE FIRST SIGNS OF THE NEXT TROPICAL ENTITY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS TO EVOLVE PERHAPS BEGINNING ON DAY 5 (WED). OTHERWISE...RELATIVELY LIGHT E WINDS WILL BE SEEN E OF 74W AND S OF 14N THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC... RIDGING WILL REMAIN JUST N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES PREVAIL...WITH THE STRONGEST TRADES OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS MATTHEW MOVES INLAND CENTRAL AMERICA TONIGHT THROUGH SAT... TRADES WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 18N W OF 82W...AMZ082. .TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 14N W OF 82W...AMZ084. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE