000
AGXX40 KNHC 230714
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
315 AM EDT THU SEP 23 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
A RECENT 0304 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED E-SE WINDS OF 20 KT OVER 
THE NW GULF AND SE GULF WITH NUMEROUS SHIP AND BUOY OBSERVATIONS 
IN THE CENTRAL GULF ALSO REPORTING 20 KT WINDS. LAND BASED 
STATIONS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS ARE REPORTING 25 KT WITH SIMILAR 
WINDS LIKELY IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. THESE 
WINDS ARE DRIVEN BY THE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING JUST N OF THE 
GULF COAST STATES AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO AND THE FAR SW GULF. 
THE AREA OF 20 KT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT E AS THE 
RIDGING DRIFTS E OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND LOWER PRES BUILDS TO 
THE S OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...MOVING THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT 
OVER THE E GULF BY FRI. DIURNALLY DRIVEN N-NE 15-20 KT WINDS 
WILL OCCUR EACH EVENING ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST THROUGH FRI. 

BY THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST IS MORE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH 
AND LOCATION OF THE LOW PRES SYSTEM IN THE CARIBBEAN. THE 
CURRENT FORECAST THINKING STILL KEEPS THE LOW IN THE VICINITY OF 
THE GULF OF HONDURAS LATE SAT INTO MON WITH HIGH PRES TO THE N 
MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLC. THIS WILL KEEP THE PRES 
GRADIENT WEAK OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH WINDS BEGINNING TO 
INCREASE OVER THE S CENTRAL GULF SUN INTO MON.

A COLD FRONT MAY DROP INTO THE N GULF WATERS OFF THE TEXAS COAST 
EARLY SUN THEN WILL EXTEND FROM NEAR APALACHEE BAY TO THE 
CENTRAL SW GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1007 MB AREA OF LOW PRES NEAR 13N73W IS EMBEDDED IN A TROPICAL 
WAVE WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE S COAST OF HAITI INTO NORTHERN 
COLOMBIA. THE WAVE AND LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN 
TO THE W CARIBBEAN TONIGHT AND FRI WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT 
INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE 
TAKES THE LOW JUST INLAND OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...OR 
REMAINING JUST OFFSHORE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH THE SYSTEM 
SLOWING AS IT MOVES OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS SUN INTO MON. 
OTHERWISE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW/TROPICAL WAVE 
AND ATLC RIDGING TO THE N-NE OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT 
IN 20-25 KT TRADES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE WITH SEAS 
BUILDING TO AROUND 13 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SQUALLY WEATHER 
HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE CLOSER TO THE WAVE AXIS AND LOW CENTER 
AND NOW EXTENDS WITHIN 150-180 NM W OF THE WAVE AXIS...WITH 
ELONGATED CONVECTION E OF THE WAVE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE E 
CARIBBEAN ALONG 14N-15N.

SW N ATLC AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
RIDGING EXISTS JUST N OF THE AREA EXTENDING FROM 1025 MB HIGH 
PRES CENTERED NEAR 36N57W TO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND ALL THE 
WAY WESTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES 
HAVE BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION WITH SHORT PERIOD SEAS 
OF 6-9 FT OUTSIDE OF THE BAHAMAS. THE HIGHEST WINDS AND SEAS ARE 
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION ALONG THE COASTS OF HISPANIOLA AND 
CUBA. THESE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE 
AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS TO THE E WHILE THE AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE 
CARIBBEAN MOVES W-NW DECREASING THE PRES GRADIENT SAT THROUGH 
MON.

WARNINGS...

SW N ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.
  
GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER LEWITSKY/SCHAUER