000 AGXX40 KNHC 220635 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 234 AM EDT WED SEP 22 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER IN THE FAR SW GULF WHILE RIDGING REMAINS JUST N OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A RECENT 0324 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20 KT WINDS ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND E GULF ZONES WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT OCCURRING IN THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AS REPORTED BY FLORIDA KEY OBSERVATIONS. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS OF 3 TO 6 FT WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SAT. DIURNALLY DRIVEN N-NE 15-20 KT WINDS WILL OCCUR EACH EVENING ALONG THE YUCATAN COAST. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE E CARIBBEAN WILL APPROACH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND PENINSULA SAT NIGHT AND SUN WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE RIDGING AND WILL ALLOW EASTERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 KT. A COLD FRONT MAY DROP INTO THE FAR NW GULF OFF THE TEXAS COAST SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... A 1009 MB AREA OF LOW PRES HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 12N65W ALONG A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN WHICH IS ORIENTED ALONG 65W. THE WAVE AND LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THEN THE W CARIBBEAN THU NIGHT AND FRI APPROACHING NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FRI NIGHT AND SAT...THEN THE NW CARIBBEAN AND GULF OF HONDURAS SAT NIGHT AND SUN. THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. OTHERWISE A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE WAVE/LOW AND ATLC RIDGING TO THE N-NE OF THE AREA WILL RESULT IN 20-25 KT TRADES IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE WITH SEAS BUILDING TO AROUND 13 FT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SQUALLY WEATHER IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL OCCUR WITHIN 180-240 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. SW N ATLC... LARGE SWELLS GENERATED FROM LONG DEPARTED AND NOW EXTRATROPICAL IGOR REMAIN AROUND 14 FT NEAR 31N55W WITH 7-10 FT OVER THE W PORTION OF THE WATERS. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT AS SHORTER PERIOD SEAS BECOME MORE PREDOMINANT. MEANWHILE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD JUST N OF THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. FRESH TO STRONG TRADES WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION TODAY THROUGH FRI WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION/JUST NORTH OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. RIDGING WILL WEAKEN SAT AND SUN AS A TROUGH WELL NE OF THE AREA MOVES WESTWARD...APPROACHING 55W LATE SUN...WITH TRADES DIMINISHING TO 10-15 KT AS A RESULT. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY