000 AGXX40 KNHC 170915 AAA MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION...UPDATED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 500 AM EDT FRI SEP 17 2010 UPDATED WARNINGS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HURRICANE KARL NEAR 19.7N 94.8W ABOUT 95 MI ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO WITH MAX SUSTAINED WINDS OF 90 KT GUSTS 110 KT 967 MB MOVING W OR 270 DEG AT 8 KT AS OF 1 AM CDT. HURRICANE KARL IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL LATER TODAY POSSIBLY AS A MAJOR HURRICANE THEN MOVING INLAND TO NEAR 19.7N 96.8W AT 00 UTC THIS EVENING. KARL WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MAINLAND MEXICO. AS KARL MOVES INLAND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MEXICO WITH FLASH FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES LIKELY TO RESULT AS THE CIRCULATION DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS S OF 21N W OF 93W. OTHERWISE A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES EXTENDING FROM ATLC HIGH PRES. EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST AROUND THIS RIDGE ACROSS THE GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE SW GULF/BAY OF CAMPECHE ONCE KARL MOVES INLAND AND WILL LINGER IN THE SAME GENERAL AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SW N ATLC... ATLC RIDGING EXISTS JUST N OF THE AREA WITH EASTERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS ALTHOUGH WINDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING TO 15-20 KT OVER THE FAR E PORTION AS MAJOR HURRICANE IGOR IS SLOWLY MOVING CLOSER TO THE OFFSHORE WATERS AREA (ALREADY W OF 55W). THE CENTER OF IGOR WILL PASS NEAR OR ALONG 65W LATE SAT THROUGH SUN MOVING NEAR OR OVER BERMUDA SUN NIGHT. HURRICANE AND TROPICAL FORCE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR N OF 23N AND E OF 69W BEGINNING TONIGHT (FRI NIGHT) AND CONTINUING THROUGH LATE SUN. LARGE SWELLS FROM IGOR WILL DOMINATE THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MON AND TUE AS IGOR MOVES N-NE OF THE REGION. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... MAJOR HURRICANE IGOR NEAR 22.2N 59.2W ABOUT 780 MI SSE OF BERMUDA WITH MAX SUSTAINED WINDS OF 110 KT GUSTS 135 KT 935 MB MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 8 KT AS OF 200 AM AST. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN BERMUDA BY LATE SATURDAY WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY. LARGE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. OVER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 21N AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD MOVE N OF 22N LATER THIS MORNING WITH TROPICAL STORM FORCE CONDITIONS PERSISTING THROUGH TONIGHT (FRI NIGHT). OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...MAINLY LIGHT (5-10 KT) AND VARIABLE WINDS WITH LOW SEAS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE WATERS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE E CARIBBEAN WHERE SWELLS TO 11 FT GENERATED BY HURRICANE IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO BLEED THROUGH THE ATLC PASSAGES WITH 10-15 KT WINDS AROUND THE FAR OUTER PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. NE WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL ALSO BE FUNNELED THROUGH THE WINDWARD AND MONA PASSAGES AS KARL MOVES MORE TO THE NW. ALSO...WINDS OF 10-15 KT OCCURRING IN THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN DUE TO A LINGERING TIGHT PRES GRADIENT FROM HURRICANE KARL NOW WELL W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT THIS WEEKEND. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .HURRICANE WARNING N OF 23N E OF 69W. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .HURRICANE WARNING N OF 19N. GULF OF MEXICO... .HURRICANE WARNING S OF 22N W OF 93W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER LEWITSKY