000 AGXX40 KNHC 141852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 255 PM EDT TUE SEP 14 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MAINLY NE TO E WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT AND SEAS GENERALLY UNDER 3 FT. HIGH PRES BUILDING OVER THE SE U.S. COMBINED WITH LOW PRES MOVING THROUGH THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL TIGHTEN THE PRES GRADIENT OVER THE EASTERN GULF LATER TODAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT THROUGH THU THEN DECREASE ON FRI. A LOW PRES CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL APPROACH THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WED AND WILL MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THU BRINGING AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS. THE LOW HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW REMAINS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH EARLY SAT THEN MOVE INLAND LATE SAT. SW N ATLC... FRONTAL TROUGH FROM 31N68W TO 25N80W WILL EXTEND FROM 31N67W TO 27N69W TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE WED. N TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT PER AN EARLIER WINDSAT PASS. A BELT OF ELY WINDS IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE WILL PERSIST S OF 25N WITH SEAS OF 4 TO 6 FT IN E SWELL E OF THE BAHAMAS. MARINE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE WED AS HURRICANE IGOR PASSES TO THE E OF THE AREA. THE FORECAST SHOWS INCREASING WINDS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE AND BUILDING SEAS OF 12 TO 18 FT IN SE SWELL. THE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK BRINGS HURRICANE IGOR CLOSER TO 65W RESULTING IN TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OVER THE E PORTION OF AREA PARTICULARLY N OF 23N E OF 68W FRI INTO SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... STRONG HURRICANE IGOR JUST E OF THE NE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE W OF 55W LATE TODAY INTO WED AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. SO A HURRICANE WARNING WILL BE HEADLINED N OF 18N E OF 60W TONIGHT...AND HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WED. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK SHOWS A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF HURRICANE IGOR. AS A RESULT...HAVE TO EXTEND THE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS THROUGH FRI OVER THE N PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES CURRENTLY NEAR 18N84W WILL MOVE TO NEAR 19N86.5 WED MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE AREA CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO DETERMINE IF A TROPICAL CYCLONE HAS FORMED. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 KT...AND INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO AND BELIZE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS WARNINGS MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED N OF 23N E OF 68W FRI INTO SAT. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .HURRICANE WARNING N OF 18N E OF 60W TONIGHT AND WED. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER GR