000 AGXX40 KNHC 091859 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT THU SEP 09 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH HAS SHIFTED NW INTO THE E CENTRAL GULF...WITH CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN STLT IMAGERY NEAR 88W. THIS ACTING TO WEAKEN THE FLOW TO THE SW OF THIS FEATURE...AND ASSOCIATED MOISTURE YIELDING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE NE QUARTER OF THE BASIN. THIS TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WASH OUT NEXT 24 HOURS AND WEAK HIGH PRES TO PREVAIL. MAX SEAS THIS MORNING WERE 5 FT ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS DUE TO PREVAILING SE FETCH...BUT SEAS SHOULD LOWER NEXT FEW DAYS TO 2 TO 4 BASIN WIND FRI AND 1 TO 3 FT BY THE WEEKEND. SW N ATLC... A BROAD TROUGH...INCLUDING THE REMNANT TROUGH OF GASTON...OVER THE WATERS SW OF THE BAHAMAS...CONTINUES TO SHIFT W WHILE ENHANCING THE SOUTHEASTERLIES S OF 24N TO 15-20 KT...AND KICKING OFF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS. HIGH PRES OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC RIDGES W-SE TO N FL WITH THE RIDGE EXPECTED TO SHIFT S TO ALONG 28N FRI AND THEN WEAKEN. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DIP S TO THE NRN BORDER OF THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TRANSVERSE THE WATERS N OF 28N PASSING BY BERMUDA SAT...THEN STALLING SAT NIGHT THROUGH SUN...AND DRIFTING BACK W OVER THE AREA N OF 28N E OF 71W MON. WEAK LOW PRES ACROSS THE SE CARIB AND ADJACENT ATLC IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NW INTO THE E CARIB NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN MOVE SLOWLY W-NW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH POTENTIAL FOR TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. THIS COULD BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE FAR SE AND S WATERS BEYOND SUN AS THE PRES GRADIENT TO THE N OF THIS EVOLVING LOW COULD BRING FRESHENING FLOW AND ELY TRADE WIND SWELL TO THE SE WATERS LATE SUN AND MON. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... VERY INTERESTING AND SEPTEMBER LIKE SCENARIO EVOLVING ACROSS THE BASIN AS LOW PRES IS BEGINNING TO DOMINATE...WITH WEAK W TO SW FLOW ACROSS THE SW AND FAR S CARIB AND ADJACENT S AMERICA. LIGHT WLYS REPORTED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE A-B-C'S. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRES JUST TO THE SE OF THE WINDWARDS IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DRIFT NW INTO THE E CARIB. SWLY WIND SURGES OF 15-20 KT CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE FROM THE S PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS OUTWARD TOWARD THE N AND NE...INDUCING SQUALLS AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS AREA WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN GUIDANCE BEYOND 36-48 HRS...WITH THE ECMWF MUCH FASTER AND TO THE NW THAN GFS AND UKMET...ALTHOUGH ALL SHOW A 20-25 KT CYCLONE BY THEN. HAVE OPTED FOR A COMPROMISE WHICH IS CLOSE TO THE UKMET TIMING...WITH A LOW NEAR 15N67W BY 72 HRS. WE EXPECT 20-25 KT ACROSS THE NE QUAD BY THAT TIME ACROSS THE NE CARIB...WITH SEAS BUILDING 6-9 FT. OTHERWISE...WEAK FLOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE CARIB WITH SEAS 3 FT AND LESS W OF 70W. AS FOR IGOR...THE FUJIWARA INTERACTION BETWEEN IGOR AND THE WAVE VORTEX FOLLOWING IT INTO THE ATLC IS JUST ABOUT COMPLETE WITH THE CAPTURE AND INGESTION OF THE TRAILING VORTEX LIKELY IN THE FINAL STAGES. GUIDANCE TAKES THIS SYSTEM OFF TO THE W THEN NW AND MAY NEVER ENTER THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING