000 AGXX40 KNHC 080605 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 210 AM EDT WED SEP 08 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TD HERMINE WELL INLAND. SE TO WINDS AT 15-20 KT OVER NW WATERS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TO 10-15 THIS AFTERNOON WITH 15 KT MAINLY OVER WATERS N OF 25N W OF 95W. THEN LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS THROUGH SUN. SEAS HEIGHTS STILL TO ABOUT 8 FT PER DENSE BUOY NETWORK AND EXPECT TO SUBSIDE TO 4-6 FT LAT TODAY AND MOSTLY OVER THE FAR W WATERS...EXPECT 2-4 FT NW WATERS THU AND THEN 1-3 FT THROUGHOUT ENTIRE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH ANCHORS OVER N CENTRAL PORTION. BROAD INVERTED TROUGH WILL DRIFT W ACROSS THE SE GULF FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACCOMPANIED BY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. SW N ATLC... SEEMS AS IF FRONTAL TROUGH NOW DRIFTING NW OVER THE NW ATLC WATERS MAY HAVE MERGED WITH A BROADER...N-S ORIENTATED...LOW LEVEL TROUGH...WHICH IS A LOW LEVEL REFLECTION OF AN UPPER CYCLONE NOW OVER THE FL STRAITS. THE RESULT IS A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH ALONG THE FL E COAST. ALTHOUGH THE ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT FROM NE-E-SE ALONG TROUGH IS ONLY IN THE 5-10 KT RANGE...THE TROUGH IS KICKING OFF CONSIDERABLY CONVECTION AND WITH THE SLOW MOVEMENT...PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS...ESPECIALLY IN CAY SAL AREA ATTM. CURRENTLY STILL SEE CYCLONIC TURNING FURTHER E ALONG 77W WITH A SECOND INVERTED TROUGH. WILL MOVE THESE TROUGHS W THROUGH MIDDAY FRI DENOTING ENHANCED EASTERLIES WITHIN 480 NM E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ADDITIONALLY...SOME MOISTURE/INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA TOWARDS THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...BUT OBS SUGGEST ONLY ABOUT 10-15 KT WINDS. FURTHER N...AN E-W RIDGE WILL LIE ALONG 29N THU-SUN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. LOOKS LIKE RIDGE WILL BLOCK UPCOMING COLD FRONTS TO OVER EXTREME N WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... E FLOW IS AT 15 KT ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ATTM. REMNANT LOW OF GASTON JUST S OF PUERTO RICO ACCOMPANIED BY 15-20 KT OVER ITS N SEMICIRCLE. WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND MOVE THESE REMNANTS W WITH GUIDANCE HANGING ONTO A WEAK TROUGH THROUGH AT LEAST 72 HOURS MOVING IN ACROSS JAMAICA. OTHERWISE...WINDS ARE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE AREA WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING S OF CUBA AND NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE AND E HISPANIOLA ASSOCIATED WITH THE GASTON REMNANTS. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH CHANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NEXT TROPICAL LOW IN FAR E ATLC IS BECOMING INTERESTING AND ALREADY HAS THE POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT. NE TRADES OVER THE WATERS N OF 15N E OF 58W SHOULD BEGIN BACKING TO N AND INCREASING LATE SUN NIGHT AS THIS LOW APPROACHES REACHING NEAR 14N35W LATE FRI...NEAR 17N41W LATE SAT...AND NEAR 17.5N46W LATE SUN. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER NELSON