000 AGXX40 KNHC 071900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT TUE SEP 07 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... TS HERMINE INLAND AND CONTINUING N-NW AT 15 KT. SE TO S WINDS AT 20 TO 30 KT CONTINUE OVER WATERS N OF 20N W OF 90W...MAINTAINING SEA 8 FT AND HIGHER N OF 25N W OF 93W. EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO DIMINISH TO AROUND 20 KT OVER WATER THIS EVENING AND THEN SHIFT MORE SE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING E TO SE 15 TO 20 KT BY WED AFTERNOON...AND MAINLY OVER WATERS N OF 21N W OF 93W. THEN LITTLE CHANGE IN WINDS THROUGH SAT. SEAS HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH HERMINE WERE AT 16 FT AT LANDFALL...BUT SUGGESTED BY BUOY OBS THIS WAS ONLY IN VERY SMALL AREA NEAR THE COAST. BEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SE WIND SWELL SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 8-10 FT BY SUNSET TODAY OVER THE WATERS N OF 25N W OF 92W...AND BELOW 8 FT ALL WATERS BY NOON WED. SW N ATLC... AN OLD FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N74W TO OFFSHORE OF CAPE CANAVERAL WILL DRIFT NW AS ATLC RIDGE BUILDS A LITTLE STRONGER FROM BERMUDA TO NE FL THROUGH MID WEEK. STILL SOME EVIDENCE OF AA BROAD LLVL INVERTED TROUGH S OF 25N ALONG ABOUT 76W MOVING W...AND IS USHERING A MODEST WIND SURGE WWD THROUGH THE SRN BAHAMAS AND GREATER ANTILLES...COUPLED WITH INCREASED MOISTURE AND OCCURRING UNDERNEATH AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SPREAD SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SQUALLS WITH ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE S HALF OF THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS NEXT 24-36 HRS. MODELS STILL NOT BULLISH ON THE REMNANTS OF GASTON AS IT MOVES W-SW THROUGH THE N CARIB NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND LITTLE EVIDENCE IS SEEN IN INCREASED PRES GRADIENT AND FRESHENING ELY'S ACROSS THE SRN WATERS. HOWEVER...IT WOULD SEEM LOGICAL TO SEE ELY OF 15-20 KT AT LEAST AND SEAS TO 6 FT OR HIGHER TO THE N OF THIS FEATURE AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE CARIB. BUOY 41043 N OF ST THOMAS HAS RISEN TO 7 FT IN ELY WIND SWELL THIS MORNING...WITH SEVERAL SHIPS REPORTING ELY WINDS 20 KT AND HIGHER WITH AND AHEAD OF THE SQUALLS THAT PRECEDED THE REMNANT LOW INTO THE CARIB OVERNIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TINY VORTEX ASSOCIATES WITH REMNANTS OF GASTON THAT WAS EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY YDA CAN STILL BE FOLLOWED TODAY...AS IT MOVED ACROSS ST KITTS AND NOW PASSING S OF ST CROIX. CNVTN CONTINUES TO FIRE IN SPURTS. AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODEL WEAKEN THIS FEATURE AND FORECAST AN OPEN WAVE BY 48 HRS...SHIFTING W-SW INTO THE CENTRAL AND THEN SW CARIB BY SAT. A MORNING ASCAT PASS INDICATED 20-25 KT WINDS WITHIN 300 NM OF N SEMICIRCLE WITH A FEW 25-30 KT WIND BARBS. EXPECT VERY SQUALLY WEATHER AS THIS FEATURE MOVES W ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT CARIB WATERS N OF 16N NEXT 36-48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WILL PREVAIL AND ACTUALLY WEAKEN SOMEWHAT AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS LOW...WITH WIND AND SEAS LIGHT AND SLIGHT BY 72 HRS. TROPICAL ATLC WATERS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY THIS EVENING THROUGH WED AS THE LOW MOVES FURTHER AWAY AND LIGHT WINDS THEN PREVAIL FOR NEXT FEW DAYS. E ATLC MONSOONAL TROUGH AND GYRE HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED AND AIDING IN WEAKENED TRADES ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC. COMPLEX INTERACTION OF RECENT AND NEXT FEW TROPICAL WAVES MOVING OFF AFRICA AND INTO/THROUGH THE MONSOON TROUGH CAUSING CONSTANT CHANGES IN MODEL OUTPUT...AND AM NOT YET CLEAR WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE NEXT SUCCESSION OF TROPICAL WAVES. WARNINGS... SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .TS WRNG N OF 27N W OF 96.5W ENDING EARLY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING