000 AGXX40 KNHC 061908 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 305 PM EDT MON SEP 06 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... T.S HERMINE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY LOOK BETTER ORGANIZED WITH IMPROVING BANDING AROUND THE CENTER AS IT MOVES N-NW. THERE IS VERY LIMITED TIME FOR HERMINE TO REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES. OTHERWISE...STRONG SELY FLOW TO THE E AND SE OF HERMINE HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS MOST OF THE W HALF OF THE BASIN AND WILL GENERATE S TO SE WIND SWELL THAT WILL AFFECT THE W HALF OF THE BASIN AND MOVE INTO THE LOUISIANA AND TEXAS COASTS NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE GRADUALLY FADING. ALTHOUGH HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...A LARGE AREA OF SEAS 12 FT AND GREATER WILL MOVE NW TO THE S TEXAS COASTAL WATERS...WITH PEAK SEAS NEAR 20 FT TO THE NE OF THE CENTER AROUND LANDFALL. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN SUBSIDE GRADUALLY THROUGH WED NIGHT AND THU MORNING. SW N ATLC... A FRONTAL TROUGH CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW WATERS WILL MEANDER AND THEN GRADUALLY BE PUSHED SE NEXT FEW DAYS AND DRAG ALONG N PORTIONS. THE LLVL REFLECTION OF UPPER TROUGH OVER BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA HAS INDUCED AN INVERTED TROUGH...WITH E-SE WINDS TO 20 KT BEHIND IT BLOWING THROUGH THE TURKS AND CAICOS AND INTO THE SE BAHAMAS...AND BUILDING SEAS TO NEAR 6 FT THERE. THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT W NEXT 2 DAYS AND WEAKEN...AS WILL THE LLVL WIND SURGE BEHIND IT...ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL S AND SW OF THE BAHAMAS AND THROUGH THE STRAITS. HIGH PRES AND MODERATE TRADES WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH AND TO THE N OF THE REMNANTS OF GASTON. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY CONTINUES WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON AS IT MOVES W THROUGH THE N CARIBBEAN. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A WEAKENING TREND NEXT FEW DAYS...AND A MORE W-SW MOTION...WHILE THE UKMET HAS MAINTAINS A STRONGER AND BETTER DEFINED VORTEX ON A MORE W MOTION. CNVTN HAS BEGIN TO FINALLY DEVELOP AND PERSIST NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS PERSISTENT VORTEX TODAY AND IT MAY FINALLY BE GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER. I HAVE MAINTAINED A W MOTION WITH WINDS 20-30 N ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS THROUGH 24 HOURS AND THEN PASS THE LOW ALONG THE S COAST OF PUERTO RICO. A LARGE BAND OF SQUALLS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OUT AHEAD OF THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SE WATERS TONIGHT. SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT IN ELY SWELL WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND MOVE INTO THE SE PORTIONS TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... AS DISCUSSED ABOVE...THE REMNANT LOW OF GASTON IS FINALLY MAINTAINING CNVTN THIS AFTERNOON. RECON HAS BEEN OUT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM TODAY AND HAS FOUND WINDS NEAR 30 KT ACROSS THE N SEMICIRCLE. SEAS IN THIS PORTIONS ARE THUS LIKELY 10-12 FT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE LEEWARDS BY AROUND 12Z TUE...WITH E TO SE WINDS AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. 20-30 KT WINDS AND SEAS 8 TO 12 FT WILL PREVAIL BETWEEN 16-20N TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TUE. MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIB TODAY...WITH WINDS POSSIBLY TO 20 KT ACROSS THE SRN CARIB...AND 20 KT AND A BIT HIGHER ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS REGION IN SELY FLOW. THESE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS LEAVING LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS AND MILD SEAS...OUTSIDE OF THE CIRCULATION OF GASTON REMNANTS AS IT TRACKS WWD ACROSS THE N CARIB. EXPECT A LOT OF TWEAKING IN EACH FORECAST PACKAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS WE ADJUST TO THIS SYSTEM. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY SW N ATLC... .NONE. CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .TS WRNG FROM 22N TO 28N W OF 94W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING