000
AGXX40 KNHC 040606
MIMATS

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION        
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
210 AM EDT SAT SEP 04 2010

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA 
AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT OVER THE LA AND NE TX COASTAL PLAINS ATTM. BIGGEST 
DIFFERENCE IN FORECAST SITUATION SINCE YESTERDAY IS THE FRONT IS 
STRONGER AND EXTENDS MUCH FURTHER W...THUS IT WILL MOVE SE 
THROUGH THE N CENTRAL AND NW GULF WATERS AND STALL FROM FL 
PANHANDLE TO NEAR NE OLD MEXICO. OF COURSE THE POST FRONTAL N-NE 
WINDS WILL BE STRONGER TODAY OVER THE NW WATERS AND ALONG THE 
MEXICAN COAST W OF 95W. THIS STRONGER NLY FLOW NOW HELPS THE GFS 
SPIN A SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE BROAD AND PERSISTENT TROUGH 
MEANDERING OVER THE SW GULF WHICH WILL ALSO BE REINFORCED BY THE 
REMNANTS OF E PAC TD 11-E MOVING N THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF 
TEHUANTEPEC. GFS IS STILL THE MOST AGGRESSIVE OF ALL GUIDANCE 
DEVELOPING A STRONG LOW PRES. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH WORDING IN 
PREVIOUS PACKAGE THAT MENTIONS TROUGH MOVING W NW AND 
EVENTUALLY INLAND MEXICO MON NIGHT WITH ELY FLOW ABOUT 20 KT E 
OF TROUGH AXIS. BY THEN REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL TROUGH WILL HAVE 
MOVED BACK NW OF AREA AND DISSIPATING INLAND.
     
SW N ATLC...
TD FIONA CENTERED JUST N OF AREA AT 03Z THIS MORNING. AREA OF 
ASSOCIATED SLY WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT WILL SHIFT N OF AREA AROUND 
SUNRISE THIS MORNING. THERE IS A MUCH LARGER AREA OF WINDS LESS 
THAN 20 KT BUT SEAS TO 11 FT IN MIXED SWELL...N OF 24N TO THE NE 
OF BAHAMAS ROUGHLY BETWEEN 64W AND 79W. EXPECT THESE SEAS TO 
DIMINISH BELOW 8 FT LATE TONIGHT. FIONA WILL TRAIL A TROUGH SW 
INTO THE AREA FROM ROUGHLY BERMUDA TO THE NW BAHAMAS. GUIDANCE 
GRADUALLY WEAKENS THIS TROUGH EACH DAY BUT HANGS ONTO A SLIGHT 
WIND SHIFT THROUGH WED RESULTING IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS 
NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THE REMNANTS OF GASTON ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE W 
INTO THE E CARIBBEAN TUE AND WED POSSIBLY AS AS REGENERATED 
TROPICAL CYCLONE. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NE AT 15 TO 20 KT OVER 
THE SE PORTION OF ATLC ZONE WITH SOME E SWELL TUE NIGHT INTO 
WED.    

CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC...
SE FLOW IS AT 15-20 KT IN GULF OF HONDURAS AND E AT 15-20 KT 
ALONG N COAST OF COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH TUE... 
THEN GRADIENT WILL RELAX SOME. NE TO E FLOW ELSEWHERE WILL BEGIN 
TO INCREASE OVER TROPICAL WATERS WELL E OF LEEWARDS SUN NIGHT AS 
A TROPICAL LOW PRES...FORMALLY TS GASTON...APPROACHES AND 
POSSIBLY REGENERATED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW CENTER 
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE LEEWARDS TUE NIGHT AND S OF PUERTO RICO 
WED NIGHT. FOR NOW WILL FORECAST CYCLONIC WINDS INCREASING TO 20 
TO 30 KT WITHIN 180 NM OF LOW CENTER MON NIGHT...AND GRADUALLY 
BUILD ASSOCIATED SEAS TO 15 FT. PRESSURE GRADIENT...AND THUS 
WIND AND SEAS FORECASTS...OVER REMAINDER OF AREA VERY DEPENDENT 
ON STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS TROPICAL LOW...SO EXPECT A LOT OF 
TWEAKING IN EACH FORECAST PACKAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

WARNINGS...
SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY

SW N ATLC...
.NONE.

CARIBBEAN...
.NONE.

TROPICAL N ATLC...
.NONE.
  
GULF OF MEXICO...
.NONE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORECASTER NELSON