000 AGXX40 KNHC 031900 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 300 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... WEAK HIGH PRES OVER THE FAR NE GULF CONTINUES TODAY...WITH A STRONG MOISTURE DISCONTINUITY E TO W ACROSS THE NE GULF LINGERING THIS AFTERNOON. UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE W GULF AIDING IN SCATTERED MODERATE TSTMS TO THE S OF THIS MOISTURE BOUNDARY. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS REFLECTED ALONG THE MOISTURE BOUNDARY FROM ALONG 27.5N IN THE NE GULF...ARCHING W THEN SW INTO THE FAR SW GULF WHERE THE UPPER TROUGH HAS CARVED A WEAKNESS AT LLVLS. BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING IS INDICATED AT LOW CLOUD LEVEL...BUT RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES DO NOT SUGGEST WINDS ANY STRONGER THAN 10 KT W OF 90W. NE TO E WINDS TO 15 KT ACROSS THE N CENTRAL GULF ARE MAINTAINING SEAS AROUND 4 FT THERE...WITH DOWNSTREAM SEAS 3-5 IN THIS E-NE WIND WAVE ALL THE WAY TO THE TEXAS COAST. OF INTEREST TODAY IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING AND NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS AND S OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. GLOBAL MODELS GRADUALLY LIFT THIS ORGANIZED AREA OF CNVTN INTO THE SW GULF BY 36 HOURS AND DRIFT IT NW....WITH THE GFS MOST AGGRESSIVE INDICATING POSBL TROPICAL CYCLONE BY 72 HOURS. MODELS SHOW ANY DEVELOPMENT RATHER CLOSE TO THE MEXICAN COAST...BUT CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...AND IS BEING MONITORED. S-SE FLOW CURRENTLY BLOWING OUT OF THE NW CARIB WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE YUCATAN NEXT 48 HOURS AND INCREASE ACROSS THE SRN GULF SUN TO YIELD SE WINDS AROUND 20 KT AND SEAS BUILDING 5 TO 6 FT BY SUN EVENING...WITH WINDS AND SEAS POTENTIALLY INCREASING BEYOND THAT TIME FRAME ACROSS THE SW AND S CENTRAL GULF. SW N ATLC... HRCN EARL CONTINUES TO LIFT OUT TO THE N-NE WITH SWLY WINDS AT 20-25 KT OVER WATERS N OF 29N ROUGHLY BETWEEN 70W-78W...PER MORNING SCAT PASSES...WITH THESE WINDS FORECAST TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT ALL ATLC WATERS BY MIDNIGHT...AS FIONA ALSO LIFTS N OUT OF THE AREA. SEAS ARE STILL 8 TO 12 FT ACROSS MUCH OF THE SW N ATLC IN N AND NW SWELL FROM EARL AND SE SWELL BEHIND FIONA...AND WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE OVERNIGHT...WITH 8-10 FT SEAS CONFINED N OF 27N E OF 74W. LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM EARL IS BLEEDING THROUGH THE BAHAMAS PASSAGES AS WELL AS TO THE W OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AND GETTING INTO S FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. MORNING BUOY OBS ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA SHOWED THE LONG PERIOD N-NE SWELL A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE THAN FORECAST AND WILL THUS LINGER ACROSS THESE WATERS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE FADING OVERNIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION AS LOW PRES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GASTON CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY W ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC AND FIONA AND EARL LIFT OUT. THIS IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC NE FLOW ACROSS THE TROPICAL N ATLC AND E CARIB BECOMING E ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIB AND THEN SE ACROSS THE W CARIB. NEAR 20 KT E TRADES PREVAIL ACROSS THE S CENTRAL CARIB WHILE SE WINDS 20-25 KT WERE DEPICTED BY A 1546 UTC ASCAT PASS...AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS. THIS FLOW WITH THESE TWO AREAS OF MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE CHANGE OTHERWISE. THE REMNANTS OF GASTON ARE STILL TRYING TO MAINTAIN CNVTN AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC...WITH SAL CONTINUING TO WORK AGAINST SUSTAINED BROAD AND DEEP CNVTN. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ACTIVE CNVTN BY MON AS THE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING SW INTO THE NE CARIB ATTM SHIFTS W AND ALLOWS FOR ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE APPROACHING LOW PRES. GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN A GENERAL WWD MOTION...WITH A POSSIBLE W-SW DIP AS IT APPROACHES THE LEEWARDS TUE. ALL INTERESTS ACROSS THE E AND NE CARIB SHOULD MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR REGENERATION OF GASTON DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE BEHIND THIS LOW IS ALSO LOOKING AS THOUGH IT IS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY PULL THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE OFF TO THE NW. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...TS WRNG N OF 28N E OF 66W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .NONE. GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER STRIPLING