000 AGXX40 KNHC 020730 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 330 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES EXTENDING ACROSS SW FROM THE MID-ATLC COAST ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH FRI AS HURRICANE EARL MOVES NNW ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR E 10-15 KT WINDS IN THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN SECTIONS TO DECREASE TO 5-10 KT. ELSEWHERE NE-E WINDS OF 10 KT...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE VICINITY OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHERE NE-E 15 KT WINDS BECOME EVIDENT IN THE EVENINGS...WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME E-SE FRI THROUGH MON AS A WEAK COLD FRONT BRUSHES THE FAR N AND NE PORTIONS FRI THROUGH SAT...BUT SHOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS WITH WINDS REMAINING AT 5-10 KT WITH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO SW-W AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN SECTIONS. BY MON WINDS SHIFT TO E-SE IN THE NE PORTION AS ATLC HIGH PRES AGAIN BUILDS SW ACROSS THE NORTHERN SECTION OF THE AREA. OBSERVED SEASTATE VALUES CORRELATE VERY WELL WITH WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FROM 0000 UTC LAST NIGHT. MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK TROUGH MOST OF SUN BEFORE WEAKENING ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST LATER AND INTO MON...BUT WITH ONLY MINOR IMPACTS ON WINDS. SW N ATLC... ...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE EARLY MAKING HEADWAY THROUGH THE N CENTRAL WATERS... AT 0600 UTC HURRICANE EARL WAS NEAR 28.6N 74.4W...OR ABOUT 460 MILES S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NW AT 13 KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 930 MB. SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER EXTEND OUTWARD FROM AS FAR AS 450 NM IN THE NE AND 330 NM IN THE NW QUADRANTS AS BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS 41046 AT 24N71W AND BUOY 41047 AT 27N72W WHERE COMBINED SEAS OF 15 AND 30 FT ARE BEING REPORTED RESPECTIVELY. THE WESTERN PORTION BUOY 41010 AT 29N76W IS REPORTING 13-15 SEAS WHILE BUOY 41049 AT 28.5N80W HAS 8-10 FT SEAS IN SE SWELLS. HIGH PRES FROM THE ATLC EASTERN SEABOARD THAT EARLIER EXTENDED SW ACROSS THE NW WATERS HAS BEEN NUDGED NW OVER THE SE U.S COAST AS EARL PUSHES NNW. LATEST NHC ADVISORY VALID AT 0300 UTC FORECASTS EARL TO WEAKEN SOME AS REACHES NEAR 30.0N 75.1W BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...THEN CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS REACHES TO NEAR 33.2N 75.2W BY EARLY TONIGHT. MAIN IMPACT TO MUCH OF THE NORTHERN WATERS OF BASIN ONCE EARL DEPARTS WILL BE THE LARGE BATCH OF LINGERING SWELLS ...WHICH ACCORDING WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH SAT MORNING. TROPICAL STORM FIONA JUST GETTING READY TO ENTER THE FAR SE WATERS WAS NEAR 21.8N 64.1W OR ABOUT 270 MILES ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AT 0600 UTC MOVING NW AT 20 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 50 KT GUSTS 60 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 1000 MB. LATEST NHC ADVISORY VALID AT 0300 UTC TRACKS FIONA NW AS MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM TO NEAR 23.8N 65.7W BY DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...TO NEAR 26.2N 67.1W EARLY TONIGHT...AND BEGINS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES TO NEAR 28.8N 67.4W FRI MORNING...AND TO JUST N OF THE BASIN NEAR 31.5N 66.3W BY EARLY FRI NIGHT...AND AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO NEAR 35.5N 63.5W BY EARLY SAT NIGHT. ANOTHER BATCH OF SE SWELLS IS PROPAGATING FROM THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC...AND INTO THE FAR SE WATERS OF THE AREA. THESE SWELLS...AS PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...WILL SHIFT NW WITH FIONA AND MIX IN WITH THOSE LEFT BEHIND FROM EARL THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY SAT AT WHICH THE ENTIRE SWELL SHOULD HAVE MIGRATED TO THE FAR N AND NE PORTIONS WITH RESULTANT MAX SEAS DOWN TO 11 OF 12 FT...THE FURTHER SUBSIDE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... TROPICAL STORM FIONA IS CURRENTLY OVER THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA ABOUT 270 NM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO AT 0600 UTC WITH TROPICAL FORCE WINDS WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NE QUADRANT AND 120 NM IN THE SE QUADRANT. LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS LEADING TO SEAS OF UP TO 14 FT WILL PROPAGATE W AND NW THROUGH THE NW PORTION OF THE TROPICAL THIS MORNING...AND SUBSIDE TO 8 FT THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS UNDER A WEAK PRES GRADIENT CONTINUE. E WINDS OF 15-20 KT TO CONTINUE GULF OF HONDURAS AND VICINITY AND OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS OF THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. TROPICAL STORM GASTON E OF AREA NEAR 13.4N 37.7W AT 0300 UTC PER LATEST NHC ADVISORY IS MOVING W AT 10 KT. GASTON IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE FAR EASTERN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC LATE MON AS A MINIMAL HURRICANE. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...HURRICANE WARNING N OF 25N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 25N E OF 67W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ087...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 19N W OF 61W... .AMZ087...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 13N TO 20N E OF 58W LATE MON... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE