000 AGXX40 KNHC 011849 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES EXTENDING S AND SW FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST MAINTAINS IT GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT LEADING TO E WINDS OF 10-20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT AS RECORDED BY THE BUOYS IN THE AREA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0400 UTC LAST NIGHT CONFIRMED THE 15-20 KT WINDS. OBSERVED SEASTATE VALUES ARE VERY PRETTY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT WITH WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FROM 1200 UTC TODAY. WITH THE TRACK OF HURRICANE EARL PRESENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC TAKING IT TO THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC TONIGHT INTO WED...THE IMPACTS OF THIS SCENARIO ON THE GULF WEATHER REGIME WOULD BE FOR THE HIGH TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN SECTION TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT FRI THROUGH SUN. MODELS HINT AT A WEAK COLD FRONT BRUSHING THE FAR NE PORTION FRI AND SAT...BUT SHOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS WITH WINDS REMAINING AT 5-10 KT WITH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO SW-W IN THE NORTHERN MIDDLE GULF WATERS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NE-E ON SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE SW GULF ZONE THROUGH SUN WITH VERY MINOR IMPACTS ON WINDS...BUT WILL AID TSTM ACTIVITY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. SW N ATLC... ...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA... HURRICANE EARL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NW THROUGH THE SW N ATLC WATERS TONIGHT WITH A TURN MORE TOWARDS THE N THU INTO THU NIGHT. THIS IS A RESULT OF THE SYSTEM COMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SW WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING THE EASTERN US. LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS HAVE PROPAGATED TO WELL NW OF THE EARL AS REPORTED BY BUOYS 41048 AND 41048. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE N AND W IN ADVANCE OF EARL AS THE CYCLONE TRANSVERSES THE BASIN THROUGH THU. SEAS TO THE S AND SE OF HURRICANE EARL HAVE BEGUN TO SUBSIDE EVIDENT BY A 4 FT DECREASE IN SEAS FROM 20 TO 16 FT AT BUOY 41046 AND FROM 12 TO 9 FT AT BUOY 41043 FROM 12 TO 18 UTC. TROPICAL STORM FIONA FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF EARL IS CURRENTLY SE OF THE AREA OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. ANOTHER BATCH OF SE SWELLS IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC...AND INTO THE FAR SE WATERS OF THE AREA. THESE SWELLS...AS PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...WILL BLEND IN WITH THOSE LEFT BEHIND FROM EARL THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH MAX HEIGHTS TO 15 FT E OF 70W...WITH SEAS SUBSIDING THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WITH HURRICANE EARL NOW HAVING PULLED TO THE N OF THE CARIBBEAN WIND AND SEA OVER THE NE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN NEAR PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ELSEWHERE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS... WITH THE EXCEPTION GULF OF HONDURAS AND VICINITY S OF 18N WHERE E WINDS 15 KT ARE OCCURRING. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH SUN. TROPICAL STORM FIONA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NW EXITING THE TROPICAL N ATLC EARLY THU WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING. LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS LEADING TO SEAS OF UP TO 15 FT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH FIONA WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TONIGHT AND THU. NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE AT 12.4N 35.8W AS OF 1500 UTC IS EXPECTED TO TRACK W TO NW OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WHILE OBTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN W OF THE WATERS THROUGH DAY 5 WITH NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE WATERS. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...HURRICANE WARNING N OF 22N E OF 78W... .AMZ080...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 24N E OF 66W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ087...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 17N W OF 58W... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER TH/WALLY BARNES