000 AGXX40 KNHC 010615 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 AM EDT WED SEP 01 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES EXTENDING S AND SW FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST MAINTAINS IT GRIP ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH THE RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT LEADING TO E WINDS OF 15-20 KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF WITH SEAS IN THE RANGE OF 3-5 FT AS RECORDED BY THE BUOYS IN THE AREA. AN ASCAT PASS FROM 0220 UTC LAST NIGHT CONFIRMED THE 15-20 KT WINDS. OBSERVED SEASTATE VALUES ARE VERY PRETTY CLOSE IN AGREEMENT WITH WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FROM 0000 UTC LAST NIGHT. WITH THE TRACK OF HURRICANE EARL PRESENTLY OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC TAKING IT TO THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC TONIGHT INTO WED...THE IMPACTS OF THIS SCENARIO ON THE GULF WEATHER REGIME WOULD BE FOR THE HIGH TO BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR WINDS OVER THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN SECTION TO DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT FRI THROUGH SUN. MODELS HINT AT A WEAK COLD FRONT BRUSHING THE FAR NE PORTION FRI AND SAT...BUT SHOULD HAVE VERY MINIMAL IMPACTS ON WINDS AND SEAS WITH WINDS REMAINING AT 5-10 KT WITH A BRIEF WIND SHIFT TO SW-W AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN SECTIONS. WINDS THEN SHIFT TO NE-E ON SUN BEHIND THE FRONT. A WEAK TROUGH WILL LINGER OVER THE SW GULF ZONE THROUGH SUN WITH VERY MINOR IMPACTS ON WINDS...BUT WILL AID TSTM ACTIVITY ADJACENT AND NEAR THE MEXICAN COAST. SW N ATLC... ...POWERFUL HURRICANE EARL MOVING THROUGH THE AREA... AT 0600 UTC HURRICANE EARL WAS OVER THE S CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 23.0N 69.9W...OR ABOUT 145 MILES NNE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND AND 860 MILES SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MOVING NW AT 13 KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT AND A PRESSURE OF 942 MB. SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER EXTEND OUTWARD FROM EARL EXTEND OUTWARD AS FAR AS FAR AS 470 NM IN THE NE AND 420 NM IN THE NW QUADRANTS AS BEING REPORTED BY BUOYS 41046 AT 24N71W AND BUOY 41049 AT 27N63W. LONG PERIOD SE SWELLS HAVE PROPAGATED TO WELL NW OF THE EARL AS REPORTED BY BUOYS 41047 AT 27.5N71W AND 41046 AT 24N71W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD TO THE N AND W IN ADVANCE OF EARL AS THE CYCLONE TRANSVERSES THE BASIN THROUGH THU. ALREADY RESIDUAL LARGE NE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE DANIELLE COMBINED WITH THOSE IN ADVANCE OF EARL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE THE NE WATERS WHILE SLOWLY SUBSIDING THERE. BUOYS 41047 AND 41049 LOCATED AT 27N71W AND E OF OF AREA AT 27N63W RESPECTIVELY ARE SHOWING COMBINED SEAS OF 16 AND 12 FT. THESE SWELLS WILL PROPAGATE NW AND W TOWARDS AND THE NW AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS AS EARL MOVES NW THROUGH THE AREA. IN THE MEANTIME...HIGH PRES FROM THE ATLC EASTERN SEABOARD EXTENDING SSW TO THE EXTREME FAR NW PORTION OF THE AREA HAS BEEN NUDGED TO THE W WITH THE APPROACH OF EARL. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A TIGHT PRES GRADIENT LEADING TO NE TO E 20 KT WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA W OF 72W AS REPORTED BY BUOY 41010. LATEST NHC ADVISORY VALID AT 0300 UTC FORECASTS EARL TO TRACK NW TO NEAR 24.5N 71.6W BY 12 UTC THIS MORNING...TO NEAR 27.0N 73.5W BY WED EARLY TONIGHT...THEN TO THE NORTHERN PORTION NEAR 29.8N 75.0W BY THU MORNING...AND TO N OF THE AREA NEAR 32.7N 75.2W BY EARLY THU NIGHT AS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER HURRICANE. TROPICAL STORM FIONA FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF EARL IS CURRENTLY SE OF THE AREA OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC. LATEST NHC ADVISORY VALID AT 0300 UTC TRACKS FIONA NW TO JUST SE OF THE AREA AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BY EARLY TONIGHT NEAR 21.2N 64.7W...THEN TO THE FAR SE WATERS NEAR 24.4N 66.5W BY THU MORNING...AND NW AS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM TO NEAR 27.8N 67.6W BY EARLY THU NIGHT...AND CONTINUING TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES N OF THE BASIN TO NEAR 35.0N 66.0W AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ANOTHER BATCH OF SE SWELLS IS PROPAGATING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TROPICAL N ATLC...AND INTO THE FAR SE WATERS OF THE AREA. THESE SWELLS ...AS PER WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE...WILL BLEND IN WITH THOSE LEFT BEHIND FROM EARL THROUGH THU NIGHT...WITH MAX HEIGHTS TO 15 FT...SUBSIDING TO 8-10 FT THU IN THE AFTERNOON...AND TO 5 FT BY FRI OVER THE E AND SE PORTIONS. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WITH HURRICANE EARL NOW HAVING PULLED TO THE N OF THE CARIBBEAN WIND AND SEA OVER THE NE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN NEAR PUERTO RICO WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. ELSEWHERE RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS... WITH THE EXCEPTION GULF OF HONDURAS AND VICINITY S OF 18N WHERE E WINDS OF 20 KT ARE OCCURRING. LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED THERE THROUGH SUN. TROPICAL STORM FIONA LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 60.1 4W OR ABOUT 210 NM ESE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARDS ISLANDS AT 0600 UTC IS MOVING WNW AT 17 KT WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 KT GUSTS TO 45 KT...AND A PRESSURE OF 1006 MB. FIONA WILL REACH NEAR 21.2N 64.7W BY EARLY TONIGHT...THEN TO JUST NW OF THE AREA NEAR 24.4N 66.5W BY THU MORNING...AND NW AS A SLIGHTLY WEAKER SYSTEM TO NEAR 27.8N 67.6W. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NE AND 45 NM TO NW OF THE CENTER. LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS LEADING TO SEAS OF UP TO 15 FT WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC IN ASSOCIATION WITH FIONA WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TONIGHT AND THU. A TROPICAL LOW WELL E OF THE AREA MAY WILL BE MOVING IN A WESTWARD DIRECTION DURING THE PERIOD...AND MAY APPROACH THE FAR EASTERN SECTION OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC ON SAT POSSIBLY BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS WITH IT INTO SUN. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...HURRICANE WARNING E OF 78W... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ087...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 17N... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER AGUIRRE