000 AGXX40 KNHC 311852 MIMATS MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 245 PM EDT TUE AUG 31 2010 MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA AND SOUTHWEST NORTH ATLC S OF 31N W OF 55W. GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRES EXTENDING S AND SW FROM THE U.S. EAST COAST CONTINUES TO HOLD TIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS WITH RESULTANT PRES GRADIENT LEADING TO E WINDS OF 10-20 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND EASTERN GULF WITH MAX SEAS TO 6 FT AS RECORDED BY BUOY 42003 IN THE MIDDLE GULF. THESE VALUES ARE IN CLOSE IN LINE WITH THE WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE FROM 12 UTC TODAY. HURRICANE EARL PRESENTLY OVER THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE SW N ATLC IS FORECAST TO TRACK TO THE E AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS WED AND WED NIGHT...THEN OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS OF THE SW N ATLC LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW FOR HIGH PRES OVER THE AREA TO WEAKEN ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO WEAKEN. A LOW PRES TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE HEADING INTO THU HELPING TO RELAX WINDS. SW N ATLC... HURRICANE EARL WAS OVER THE SE PORTION OF THE AREA NEAR 21.2N 67.9W W AT 1500 UTC...MOVING WNW AT 12 KT WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 115 KT GUSTS 140 KT. SEAS OF 12 FT OR GREATER EXTEND OUTWARD FROM EARL TO WITHIN 440 NM IN THE NE AND 390 IN THE NW QUADRANTS. LONG PERIOD E AND SE SWELLS HAVE PROPAGATED TO WELL NW OF EARL AS REPORTED BY BUOYS 41047 AT 27.5N71W AND 41046 AT 24N71W. THESE SWELLS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX WITH LINGERING SWELLS LEFT BEHIND BY DANIELLE WITH THE ENTIRE COMBINED BATCH OF SWELLS TRAVELING NW ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TO THE N AND NE OF THE BAHAMAS. SEA HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN SUBSIDING OVER THE SE PART OF THE SW N ATLC AS EARL DEPARTS. TROPICAL STORM FIONA FOLLOWING ON THE HEELS OF EARL IS CURRENTLY WELL SE OF THE AREA. LATEST NHC ADVISORY VALID AT 1500 UT TRACKS FIONA NW TO JUST SE OF THE AREA AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM BY WED EVENING...THEN INTO THE WATERS AT 23.4N 65.8W THU MORNING WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING THE WATERS EARLY SAT. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS ANOTHER SURGE OF SE SWELLS INTO THE FAR SE CORNER OF THE AREA BEGINNING TUE NIGHT...AND PROPAGATES THEM NW TO ALMOST BLEND IN WITH THOSE LEFT BEHIND FROM EARL...BUT MAX VALUES RIGHT NOW DON'T APPEAR AS HIGH AS THOSE WITH EARL DUE TO FIONA FORECAST TO BE A MUCH WEAKER CYCLONE. CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC... WITH EARL TRACKING NW THROUGH THE SW N ATLC ITS INFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO LESSEN IN THE CARIBBEAN ALLOWING WINDS AND SEAS OVER THE NE WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO ABATE. WITH RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE END OF WEEK RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED...WITH THE EXCEPTION GULF OF HONDURAS AND VICINITY WHERE E WINDS OF 15 KT WERE NOTED IN A 1508Z ASCAT PASS. TROPICAL STORM FIONA HAS MOVED INTO THE TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS AND WAS LOCATED AT 15.9N 55.3W MOVING WNW AT 21 KT AS OF 1500 UTC. FIONA IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ON A WNW TRACK THEN TURN MORE TOWARDS THE NW WED NIGHT REACHING 21.1N 63.8W...BEFORE MOVING INTO THE SW N ATLC WATERS THU MORNING. LARGE LONG PERIOD SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH FIONA WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROPICAL N ATLC WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING WED NIGHT THROUGH THU. WARNINGS... SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON LATEST NHC ADVISORY SW N ATLC... .AMZ080...HURRICANE WARNING E OF 78W... .TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 27N E OF 68W THU... CARIBBEAN... .NONE. TROPICAL N ATLC... .AMZ087...TROPICAL STORM WARNING N OF 16N... GULF OF MEXICO... .NONE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORECASTER TH/WALLY BARNES